Climate Change in the American Mind, September 2021

Report Summary

Our latest national survey finds that overall public understanding that climate change is happening, affecting the weather, and harming Americans is at all-time record highs. For example, Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 6 to 1 (76% versus 12%). Those who are “very” or “extremely” sure global warming is happening outnumber those who are “very” or “extremely” sure it is not by about 8 to 1 (57% versus 7%). The report includes many other interesting findings, including how often Americans hear and talk about global warming.

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (climatecommunication.yale.edu) and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication (climatechangecommunication.org). Interview dates: September 10 – 20, 2021. Interviews: 1,006 Adults (18+). Average margin of error +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Executive Summary

Drawing on a nationally representative survey (n = 1,006), this report describes Americans’ beliefs and attitudes about global warming. The survey was fielded from September 10 – 20, 2021. This report builds on two previous reports based on data from this same survey that focused on public support for U.S. domestic climate policy and public support for international climate action.

The numbers in the Executive Summary that are noted with an asterisk (*) are at an all-time highs since our surveys began in 2008 or since they were first asked (see data tables for details). Among the key findings of this report:

Global Warming Beliefs

• Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of more than 6 to 1 (76%* versus 12%). Those who are “very” or “extremely” sure global warming is happening outnumber those who are “very” or “extremely” sure it is not by about 8 to 1 (57%* versus 7%).
• Six in ten Americans (60%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. About one in four (27%) think it is due mostly to natural changes in the environment.
• A majority of Americans (59%*) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. However, only about one in four (24%*) understand how strong the level of consensus among scientists is (i.e., that more than 90% of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening).

Emotional Responses to Global Warming

• Seven in ten Americans (70%*) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming. One in three (35%*) say they are “very worried.”
• About two in three Americans (66%) say they feel “interested” when thinking about global warming. More than half (54%) say they feel “disgusted.” Four in ten or more say they feel “angry” (47%), outraged (45%), or hopeful (42%).

Perceived Risks of Global Warming

• More than half of Americans (55%*) think people in the United States are being harmed by global warming “right now,” and about half (52%*) say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.
• Half of Americans (50%*) think they will be harmed by global warming, and more than half think their family (55%) and people in their community (57%) will be harmed. Even larger majorities think global warming will harm people in the U.S. (68%*), the world’s poor (70%), people in developing countries (71%), future generations of people (74%), and plant and animal species (76%*).

Personal and Social Engagement with Global Warming

• About six in ten Americans (61%) say they “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends, while about four in ten (39%) say they do so “occasionally” or “often.”
• More than half of Americans (57%*) say they hear about global warming in the media at least once a month. Fewer (24%) say they hear people they know talk about global warming at least once a month.
• About seven in ten Americans (71%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely,” “very,” or “somewhat” important to them personally, while one in three (29%) say it is either “not too” or “not at all” personally important.
• Fewer than half of Americans think their friends and family expect them to take action, or take action themselves, on global warming: 43% think it is at least “moderately” important to their family and friends that they take action (an injunctive norm). Fewer (38%) say their family and friends make at least “a moderate amount of effort” to reduce global warming (a descriptive norm).
• About seven in ten Americans (69%*) feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.

Efficacy Beliefs

• Two in three Americans (67%) disagree with the statement “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming,” while only 12% agree.
• About six in ten Americans (61%) disagree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming,” while about four in ten (39%) agree.
• Americans are split about whether they think “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes to their lives” (48% agree; 52% disagree).

Impacts of Global Warming

• Seven in ten Americans (70%*) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 43%* who think weather is being affected “a lot.”
• Large majorities of Americans think global warming is affecting many environmental hazards in the United States including extreme heat (77%), wildfires (76%), droughts (75%), air pollution (74%), rising sea levels (73%), flooding (73%), hurricanes (72%), and water shortages (72%). More than six in ten think global warming is affecting reduced snowpack (69%), tornadoes (68%), agricultural pests and diseases (67%), water pollution (66%), and electricity power outages (66%).
• About seven in ten Americans (71%*) agree either “strongly” (38%*) or “somewhat” (33%) that wildfires have increased around the world as a result of global warming.
• A majority of Americans (64%*) think extreme weather poses either a “high” (20%*) or “moderate” (43%*) risk to their community over the next 10 years.
• A majority of Americans are worried about harm from a range of environmental hazards in their local area including air pollution (76%*), extreme heat (76%*), electricity power outages (75%), water pollution (73%), droughts (68%*), agricultural pests and diseases (66%*), water shortages (64%*), flooding (62%*), tornados (58%*), and wildfires (52%*).

How Americans Conceptualize Global Warming

Majorities of Americans think global warming is an environmental issue (79%), a scientific issue (74%), a severe weather issue (69%*), an agricultural issue (66%), an economic issue (66%*), a health issue (64%*), a political issue (60%), and/or a humanitarian issue (60%). 

1. Global Warming Beliefs

1.1. About three in four Americans think global warming is happening.

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of more than 6 to 1.

About three in four Americans (76%) think global warming is happening, the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008. By contrast, 12% of Americans think global warming is not happening.

1.2. More than half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. Very few are as sure it isn’t happening.

More than half of Americans (57%) are either “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening, the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008. Far fewer (7%) are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is not happening.

Over the last five years (since our November 2016 survey), the percentage of Americans who are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening has increased by 12 percentage points.

1.3. Six in ten Americans think global warming is mostly human-caused.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment report (2021), written and reviewed by thousands of climate experts worldwide, states: “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.”¹

Six in ten Americans (60%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, about one in four (27%) think it is due mostly to natural changes in the environment.

1.4. A majority of Americans understand that most scientists think global warming is happening.

A 2016 review by John Cook and colleagues² found that six independent, peer-reviewed studies examining the extent of the scientific consensus about global warming have concluded that between 90% and 100% of climate scientists are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening. Two even more recent studies found that more than 99% of climate scientists are convinced that global warming is happening and human-caused.^3 4

A majority of Americans (59%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening – the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008. By contrast, about one in five Americans (21%) think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening – the lowest percentage since our surveys began. Very few Americans (3%) believe that most scientists think global warming is not happening.

1.5. About one in four Americans understand that almost all climate scientists (more than 90%) have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening.

Although the majority of Americans now understand that most scientists think global warming is happening, fewer understand just how strong the level of consensus among scientists is. Only about one in four Americans (24%) understand that nearly all climate scientists (more than 90%) are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening. However, that number has increased by nine percentage points over the last five years (since November 2016; see data tables).

The same percentage of Americans (24%) say they “don’t know” what percentage of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening.⁵

¹Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021): Summary for Policymakers. In Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., & Zhou, B. (eds.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

²Cook, J., Oreskes, N., Doran, P. T., Anderegg, W. R. I., Verheggen, B., Maibach, E. W., Carlton, J. S., Lewandowsky, S., Skuce, A. G., Green, S. A., Nuccitelli, D., Jacobs, P., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., & Rice., K. (2016). Consensus on consensus: A synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 11(4). doi10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002

³Myers, K. F., Doran, P. T., Cook, J., Kotcher, J. E., & Myers, T. A. (2021). Consensus revisited: Quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774

⁴Lynas, M., Houlton, B. Z., & Perry, S. (2021). Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. Environmental Research Letters, 16(11). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966

⁵Respondents were asked to estimate the percentage of climate scientists who have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening by moving a slider bar which appeared on the screen of their computer. This slider allowed respondents to move the marker from 0% on the left to 100% on the right, or to any whole number between the two. A “don’t know” response option appeared below the slider bar.

2. Emotional Responses to Global Warming

2.1. Seven in ten Americans are worried about global warming.

Seven in ten Americans (70%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008. Of those, about one in three Americans (35%) are “very worried,” also the highest percentage since 2008.

2.2. About two in three Americans are “interested” in global warming.

When asked how strongly they feel various emotions when thinking about global warming, about two in three Americans (66%) say they feel “very” or “moderately” interested. Additionally, more than half (54%) say they feel disgusted when thinking about global warming, and four in ten or more say they feel angry (47%), outraged (45%), or hopeful (42%).

3. Perceived Risks of Global Warming

3.1. About half of Americans say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.

About half of Americans (52%) agree that they have personally experienced the effects of global warming, while 48% disagree. This is the first time since our surveys began in 2008 that the percentage who agree that they have personally experienced the effects of global warming is equal to or greater than the percentage who disagree.

3.2. More than half of Americans think people in the U.S. are being harmed “right now” by global warming.

More than half of Americans (55%) think people in the U.S. are being harmed by global warming “right now,” the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008, and the first time that percentage is higher than 50%.

3.3. Half of Americans think they will be harmed by global warming, but think others will be harmed more.

A majority of Americans understand that global warming will cause harm. Americans are most likely to think that plant and animal species (76%), future generations of people (74%), people in developing countries (71%), the world’s poor (70%), and people in the U.S. (68%) will be harmed “a great deal” or “a moderate amount” by global warming. Half or more think people in their community (57%), their family (55%), and they themselves (50%) will be harmed.

4. Personal and Social Engagement with Global Warming

4.1. Most Americans “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends.

About six in ten Americans (61%) say they “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends, while about four in ten (39%) say they discuss global warming “occasionally” or “often.”

4.2. More than half of Americans hear about global warming in the media at least once a month; fewer hear people they know talking about it at least once a month.

More than half of Americans (57%) say they hear about global warming in the media once a month or more often, while one in three (33%) say they hear about global warming in the media several times a year or less often, including nine percent who say they never hear about global warming in the media.

Only about one in four Americans (24%) say they hear people they know talk about global warming once a month or more often. In contrast, about two in three (66%) say they hear people they know talk about it several times a year or less often, including 28% who say they never hear people they know talk about global warming.

4.3. About seven in ten Americans say the issue of global warming is personally important.

About seven in ten Americans (71%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely” (19%), “very” (24%), or “somewhat” (28%) important to them personally. About three in ten (29%) say global warming is either “not too” (15%) or “not at all” (15%) personally important.

4.4. Fewer than half of Americans perceive social norms for taking action on global warming.

Social science research has shown that two types of social norms can have a powerful influence on people’s behavior: injunctive norms (the belief that friends and family expect you to behave in a given way) and descriptive norms (the belief that friends and family are themselves behaving in that way).¹

Forty-three percent of Americans perceive an injunctive norm, saying it is either “extremely” (5%), “very” (13%), or “moderately” important (25%) to their family and friends that they take action to reduce global warming. Fewer Americans (38%) perceive a descriptive norm, saying their family and friends make either “a great deal of effort” (3%), “a lot of effort” (7%), or “a moderate amount of effort” (28%) to reduce global warming.

4.5. About seven in ten Americans feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.

About two in three Americans (69%) agree either “strongly” (21%) or “somewhat” (48%) that they feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.

¹Schultz, P. W., Nolan, J. M., Cialdini, R. B., Goldstein, N. J., & Griskevicius, V. (2007). The constructive, destructive, and reconstructive power of social norms. Psychological Science, 18(5), 429-434. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.01917.x

5. Efficacy Beliefs

5.1. Few Americans think it is too late to do anything about global warming.

Two in three Americans (67%) either “strongly” (41%) or “somewhat” (26%) disagree with the statement that “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming.” By contrast, relatively few Americans either “strongly” or “somewhat” agree with this statement.

5.2. Most Americans disagree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming.”

About four in ten Americans (39%) either “strongly” (14%) or “somewhat” (25%) agree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming.” In contrast, about six in ten Americans (61%) either “strongly” (23%) or “somewhat” (38%) disagree that individual actions won’t make a difference.

5.3. Americans are split about whether new technologies can solve global warming without individual action.

Many Americans (48%) either “strongly” or “somewhat” agree that “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes in their lives,” while 52% of Americans either “strongly” or “somewhat” disagree.

6. Impacts of Global Warming

6.1. Seven in ten Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States.

Seven in ten Americans (70%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including almost two in three (65%) who think global warming is affecting U.S. weather either “a lot” (43%) or “some” (22%).

As noted above, 43% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather “a lot.” The percentage of Americans who think global warming is affecting the weather “a lot” is 20 percentage points higher than when we first asked this question in April 2013.

6.2. More than six in ten Americans think global warming is affecting environmental problems in the United States.

More than six in ten Americans think global warming is affecting many environmental problems in the United States at least “a little.” This includes seven in ten or more who think global warming is affecting extreme heat (77%), wildfires (76%), droughts (75%), air pollution (74%), rising sea levels (73%), flooding (73%), hurricanes (72%), and water shortages (72%). More than six in ten think global warming is affecting reduced snowpack (69%), tornadoes (68%), agricultural pests and diseases (67%), water pollution (66%), and electricity power outages (66%).

Among these, about half of Americans think global warming is affecting wildfires (50%) and extreme heat (49%) in the United States “a lot.”

6.3. About seven in ten Americans think wildfires have increased as a result of global warming.

About seven in ten Americans either “strongly” (38%) or “somewhat” (33%) agree that wildfires have increased around the world as a result of global warming.

6.4. Four in ten Americans think allergy season has become more severe in their area.

Four in ten Americans (40%) think allergy season has become more severe in their area in the past few years, while more than half (56%) think it has stayed about the same, and very few (4%) think it has become less severe.

6.5. A majority of Americans think extreme weather poses a risk to their community.

A majority of Americans (64%) think extreme weather poses either a “high” (20%) or “moderate” (43%) risk to their community over the next 10 years. Fewer think extreme weather poses either a “low” risk (26%) or “no” risk (5%).

6.6. A majority of Americans are worried about harm from environmental problems in their local area.

Section 6.2 of this report outlined the degree to which Americans think global warming is already affecting numerous environmental problems. This section details how worried Americans are that each of those environmental problems will harm their local area in the future. A majority of Americans are at least “a little worried” about harm to their local area from air pollution (76%), extreme heat (76%), electricity power outages (75%), water pollution (73%), droughts (68%), agricultural pests and diseases (66%), water shortages (64%), flooding (62%), tornados (58%), and wildfires (52%). Fewer are worried about rising sea levels (47%), hurricanes (47%), and reduced snowpack (46%).

7. How Americans Conceptualize Global Warming

7.1. Americans are most likely to think of global warming as an environmental and scientific issue.

Global warming is a complex challenge with many dimensions. Understanding how people conceptualize the issue is critical to formulating effective communication strategies.

A large majority of Americans think global warming is an environmental issue (79%) and a scientific issue (74%). More than half think global warming is a severe weather (69%), agricultural (66%), economic (66%), health (64%), political (60%), and/or humanitarian (60%) issue.

Fewer think global warming is a moral (49%), poverty (37%), national security (35%), social justice (34%), and/or religious (11%) issue.

Over the past five years (since November 2016), the proportions of Americans who consider global warming a moral issue and a poverty issue have each increased by 12 percentage points (see data tables). Among the other items that were asked in both the current survey and in November 2016, the proportion of Americans who view global warming as a social justice (fairness) issue (+10 percentage points), a national security issue (+8 points), a severe weather issue (+8 points), and an economic issue (+6 points), has also increased.

Appendix I: Data Tables

Data tables can be found beginning on p. 31 of the PDF version of the full report:

climate-change-american-mind-september-2021b

Appendix II: Survey Method

The data in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,006 American adults, aged 18 and older. The survey was conducted September 10 – 20, 2021. All questionnaires were self-administered by respondents in a web-based environment. The median completion time for the survey was 24 minutes.

The sample was drawn from the Ipsos (formerly GfK) KnowledgePanel®, an online panel of members drawn using probability sampling methods. Prospective members are recruited using a combination of random digit dial and address-based sampling techniques that cover virtually all (non-institutional) resident phone numbers and addresses in the United States. Those contacted who would choose to join the panel but do not have access to the Internet are loaned computers and given Internet access so they may participate.

The sample therefore includes a representative cross-section of American adults – irrespective of whether they have Internet access, use only a cell phone, etc. Key demographic variables were weighted, post survey, to match U.S. Census Bureau norms.

From November 2008 to December 2018, no KnowledgePanel® member participated in more than one Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) survey. Beginning with the April 2019 survey, panel members who have participated in CCAM surveys in the past, excluding the most recent two surveys, may be randomly selected for participation. In the current survey, 300 respondents participated in a previous CCAM survey.

The survey instrument was designed by Anthony Leiserowitz, Seth Rosenthal, Jennifer Carman, Matthew Goldberg, Karine Lacroix, and Jennifer Marlon of Yale University, and Edward Maibach and John Kotcher of George Mason University. The charts and tables were designed by Liz Neyens of Yale University.

Sample details and margins of error

All samples are subject to some degree of sampling error – that is, statistical results obtained from a sample can be expected to differ somewhat from results that would be obtained if every member of the target population were interviewed. Average margins of error for each wave, at the 95% confidence level, are plus or minus 3 percentage points except where noted.

• September 2021: Fielded September 10 – 20 (n = 1,006)
• March 2021: Fielded March 18 – 29 (n = 1,037)
• December 2020: Fielded December 3 – December 17 (n = 1,036)
• Apri 2020: Fielded April 8 – April 17 (n = 1,029)
• November 2019: Fielded November 8 – November 20 (n = 1,303)
• April 2019: Fielded March 29 – April 8 (n = 1,291)
• December 2018: Fielded November 28 – December 11 (n = 1,114)
• March 2018: Fielded March 7 – March 24 (n = 1,278)
• October 2017: Fielded October 20 – November 1 (n = 1,304)
• May 2017: Fielded May 18 – June 6 (n = 1,266)
• November 2016: Fielded November 18 – December 1 (n = 1,226)
• March 2016: Fielded March 18 – 31 (n = 1,204)
• October 2015: Fielded September 30 – October 19 (n = 1,330)
• March 2015: Fielded February 27 – March 10 (n = 1,263)
• October 2014: Fielded October 17 – 28 (n = 1,275)
• April 2014: Fielded April 15 – 22 (n = 1,013)
• November 2013: Fielded November 23 – December 9 (n = 830)
• April 2013: Fielded April 10 – 15 (n = 1,045)
• September 2012: Fielded August 31 – September 12 (n = 1,061)
• March 2012: Fielded March 12 – March 30 (n = 1,008)
• November 2011: Fielded October 20 – November 16 (n = 1,000)
• May 2011: Fielded April 23 – May 12 (n = 1,010)
• June 2010: Fielded May 14 – June 1 (n = 1,024)
• January 2010: Fielded December 24, 2009 – January 3, 2010 (n = 1,001).
• November 2008: Fielded October 7 – November 12 (n = 2,164).
  • Data were collected over two periods: from October 7 – October 20 and from October 24 – November 12. Margin of error plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Rounding error

For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., “strongly agree” + “somewhat agree”) are rounded after sums are calculated (e.g., 25.3% + 25.3% = 50.6%, which, after rounding, would be reported as 25% + 25% = 51%).

Appendix III: Sample Demographics

Sample demographics can be found on p. 109 of the PDF version of the full report:

climate-change-american-mind-september-2021b