Climate Change in the American Mind, April 2022

Report Summary

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Interview dates: April 13 – May 2, 2022. Interviews: 1,018 adults (18+). Average margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The research was funded by the Schmidt Family Foundation, the U.S. Energy Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and the Grantham Foundation.

 For all media and other inquiries, please email:

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication: Eric Fine ([email protected])

George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication: Edward Maibach ([email protected]) and John Kotcher ([email protected])

Executive Summary

Drawing on a nationally representative survey (n = 1,018) conducted from April 13 – May 2, 2022, this report describes Americans’ beliefs and attitudes about global warming. We previously reported the findings on public support for U.S. climate policy.

In the September 2021 wave of the Climate Change in the American Mind survey, we found that public understanding of several key indicators – that climate change is happening, affecting the weather, harming Americans, etc. – had reached all-time highs. These and other indicators have declined back to levels close to what we found in March 2021.

Among the key findings of this report:

Global Warming Beliefs

• Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of 6 to 1 (72% versus 12%). Those who are “very” or “extremely” sure global warming is happening outnumber those who are “very” or “extremely” sure it is not happening more than 7 to 1 (54% versus 7%).
• More than half of Americans (56%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. About one in three (33%) think it is due mostly to natural changes in the environment.
• A majority of Americans (55%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. However, only one in five (20%) understand how strong the level of consensus among scientists is (i.e., that more than 90% of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening).

Emotional Responses to Global Warming

• A majority of Americans (64%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming. Three in ten (30%) say they are “very worried.”
• About six in ten Americans (62%) say they feel “interested” when thinking about global warming. About half say they feel “disgusted” or “sad” (both 51%). Four in ten or more say they feel “afraid” (46%), ”angry” (44%), or “outraged” (42%), while 38% say they feel “hopeful.”

Perceived Risks of Global Warming

• About half of Americans (48%) think people in the United States are being harmed by global warming “right now,” and four in ten (43%) say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.
• 47% of Americans think they will be harmed by global warming, and about half think their family (51%) and people in their community (52%) will be harmed. Larger majorities think global warming will harm people in the U.S. (65%), people in developing countries (69%), the world’s poor (69%), plant and animal species (72%), and future generations of people (72%).
• More than one in ten Americans (13%) have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.

Personal and Social Engagement with Global Warming

• Two in three Americans (67%) say they “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends, while one in three (33%) say they do so “occasionally” or “often.”
• More than half of Americans (56%) say they hear about global warming in the media at least once a month. Fewer (24%) say they hear people they know talk about global warming at least once a month.
• A majority of Americans (64%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely,” “very,” or “somewhat” important to them personally, while 36% say it is either “not too” or “not at all” personally important.
• Fewer than half of Americans think their friends and family take action on global warming or that their friends and family expect them to take action: 40% say their family and friends make at least “a moderate amount of effort” to reduce global warming (a descriptive norm). Similarly, 40% think it is at least “moderately” important to their family and friends that they take action (an injunctive norm).

Fatalism

• A majority of Americans (61%) disagree with the statement “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming,” while only 17% agree.
• Americans are split about whether they think “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes to their lives” (48% agree; 52% disagree).

Impacts of Global Warming

• A majority of Americans (63%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 32% who think weather is being affected “a lot.”
• Large majorities of Americans think global warming is affecting many environmental problems in the United States including extreme heat (75%), wildfires (73%), droughts (72%), rising sea levels (72%), flooding (70%), water shortages (70%). and air pollution (70%). More than six in ten think global warming is affecting hurricanes (69%), reduced snowpack (68%), tornados (67%), agricultural pests and diseases (65%), water pollution (63%), and electricity power outages (62%).
• About two in three Americans (65%) agree either “strongly” (31%) or “somewhat” (34%) agree that wildfires have increased around the world as a result of global warming.
• A majority of Americans (56%) think extreme weather poses either a “high” (19%) or “moderate” (37%) risk to their community over the next 10 years.
• A majority of Americans are worried about harm from a range of environmental problems in their local area including electricity power outages (78%), water pollution (77%), air pollution (73%), extreme heat (71%), agricultural pests and diseases (70%), droughts (69%), water shortages (68%), flooding (61%), wildfires (61%), and tornados (60%).

1. Global Warming Beliefs

1.1. Most Americans think global warming is happening.

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of 6 to 1.

About seven in ten Americans (72%) think global warming is happening. By contrast, only 12% of Americans think global warming is not happening. Fifteen percent say they don’t know if global warming is happening (see data tables).

1.2. More than half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. Very few are as sure it isn’t happening.

More than half of Americans (54%) are either “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. Far fewer (7%) are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is not happening.

1.3. A majority of Americans think global warming is mostly human-caused.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment report (2021), written and reviewed by thousands of climate experts worldwide, states: “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.”¹

More than half of Americans (56%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, one in three (33%) think it is due mostly to natural changes in the environment.

1.4. A majority of Americans understand that most scientists think global warming is happening.

A 2016 review by John Cook and colleagues² found that six independent, peer-reviewed studies examining the extent of the scientific consensus about global warming have concluded that between 90% and 100% of climate scientists are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening. A more recent study found that as many as 98% of climate scientists are convinced that global warming is happening and human-caused.³

A majority of Americans (55%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. By contrast, one in four Americans (25%) think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening. Very few Americans (2%) believe that most scientists think global warming is not happening.

1.5. One in five Americans understand that almost all climate scientists (more than 90%) have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening.

Although the majority of Americans now understand that most scientists think global warming is happening, fewer understand just how strong the level of consensus among scientists is. Only one in five Americans (20%) understand that nearly all climate scientists (more than 90%) are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening.

A larger percentage of Americans (25%) say they “don’t know” what percentage of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening.⁴

Public misunderstanding of the scientific consensus – which has been found in each of our surveys since 2008 – has significant consequences. Other research has identified public understanding of the scientific consensus as an important “gateway belief” that influences other important beliefs (i.e., that global warming is happening, human-caused, and worrisome) and support for action.⁵

_¹Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021): Summary for Policymakers. In Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., & Zhou, B. (eds.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

²Cook, J., Oreskes, N., Doran, P. T., Anderegg, W. R. I., Verheggen, B., Maibach, E. W., Carlton, J. S., Lewandowsky, S., Skuce, A. G., Green, S. A., Nuccitelli, D., Jacobs, P., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., & Rice., K. (2016). Consensus on consensus: A synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 11(4). doi10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002

³Myers, K. F., Doran, P. T., Cook, J., Kotcher, J. E., & Myers, T. A. (2021). Consensus revisited: Quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774

⁴Respondents were asked to estimate the percentage of climate scientists who have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening by moving a slider bar which appeared on the screen of their computer. This slider allowed respondents to move the marker from 0% on the left to 100% on the right, or to any whole number between the two. A “don’t know” response option appeared below the slider bar.

⁵For more information, see van der Linden, S. L., Leiserowitz, A. A., Feinberg, G. D., & Maibach, E. W. (2015). The scientific consensus on climate change as a gateway belief: Experimental evidence. PLoS ONE, 10(2). https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0118489

2. Emotional Responses to Global Warming

2.1. A majority of Americans are worried about global warming.

A majority of Americans (64%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming. This includes three in ten Americans (30%) who are “very worried” about global warming.

2.2. A majority of Americans are “interested” in global warming.

When asked how strongly they feel various emotions when thinking about global warming, about six in ten Americans (62%) say they feel “very” or “moderately” interested. Additionally, about half say they feel disgusted or sad (both 51%) when thinking about global warming. Four in ten or more say they feel afraid (46%), angry (44%), or outraged (42%), and 38% say they feel hopeful.

3. Perceived Risks of Global Warming

3.1. About four in ten Americans say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.

About four in ten Americans (43%) agree that they have personally experienced the effects of global warming, while 57% disagree.

3.2. About half of Americans think people in the U.S. are being harmed “right now” by global warming.

About half of Americans (48%) think people in the U.S. are being harmed by global warming “right now.”

3.3. Nearly half of Americans think they will be harmed by global warming, but think others will be harmed more.

A majority of Americans understand that global warming will cause harm. Americans are most likely to think that future generations of people and plant and animal species (both 72%), the world’s poor and people in developing countries (both 69%), and people in the U.S. (65%) will be harmed “a great deal” or “a moderate amount” by global warming. Half or more think people in their community (52%) and their family (51%) will be harmed, and 47% think they themselves will be harmed.

3.4. More than one in ten Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.

According to a recent article¹, an increasing number of people in the United States may be considering moving awayfrom areas particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. We find that 13% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming, while 78% have not, and 8% are not sure.

¹https://www.wired.com/story/as-climate-fears-mount-some-are-relocating-within-the-us/

4. Personal and Social Engagement with Global Warming

4.1. Most Americans “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends.

Two in three Americans (67%) say they “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends, while one in three (33%) say they discuss global warming “occasionally” or “often.”

4.2. More than half of Americans hear about global warming in the media at least once a month; fewer hear people they know talking about it at least once a month.

More than half of Americans (56%) say they hear about global warming in the media once a month or more often, while one in three (33%) say they hear about global warming in the media several times a year or less often, including 6% who say they never hear about global warming in the media.

Only about one in four Americans (24%) say they hear people they know talk about global warming once a month or more often. In contrast, about two in three (68%) say they hear people they know talk about it several times a year or less often, including 28% who say they never hear people they know talk about global warming.

4.3. A majority of Americans say the issue of global warming is personally important.

A majority of Americans (64%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely” (15%), “very” (24%), or “somewhat” (25%) important to them personally. Fewer (36%) say global warming is either “not too” (18%) or “not at all” (18%) personally important.

4.4. Fewer than half of Americans perceive social norms for taking action on global warming.

Social science research has shown that two types of social norms can have a powerful influence on people’s behavior: injunctive norms (the belief that friends and family expect you to behave in a given way) and descriptive norms (the belief that friends and family are themselves behaving in that way).¹

Four in ten Americans (40%) perceive a descriptive norm, saying their family and friends make either “a great deal of effort” (4%), “a lot of effort” (7%), or “a moderate amount of effort” (29%) to reduce global warming. Similarly, 40% perceive an injunctive norm, saying it is either “extremely” (6%), “very” (10%), or “moderately” (24%) important to their family and friends that they take action to reduce global warming.

¹Schultz, P. W., Nolan, J. M., Cialdini, R. B., Goldstein, N. J., & Griskevicius, V. (2007). The constructive, destructive, and reconstructive power of social norms. Psychological Science, 18(5), 429-434. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.01917.x

5. Fatalism

5.1. Few Americans think it is too late to do anything about global warming.

A majority of Americans (61%) either “strongly” (39%) or “somewhat” (22%) disagree with the statement that “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming.” By contrast, relatively few Americans (17%) either “strongly” (4%) or “somewhat” (13%) agree with this statement.

5.2. Americans are split about whether new technologies can solve global warming without individual action.

Many Americans (48%) either “strongly” or “somewhat” agree that “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes in their lives,” while 52% of Americans either “strongly” or “somewhat” disagree.

6. Impacts of Global Warming

6.1. A majority of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States.

Sixty-three percent of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including a majority (56%) who think global warming is affecting U.S. weather either “a lot” (32%) or “some” (24%).

As noted above, 32% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather “a lot.” After a large increase in our September 2021 survey, the percentage has returned to about the same level as in our March 2021 survey.

6.2. Most Americans think global warming is affecting environmental problems in the United States.

Most Americans think global warming is affecting many environmental problems in the United States at least “a little.” This includes seven in ten or more who think global warming is affecting extreme heat (75%), wildfires (73%), droughts (72%), rising sea levels (72%), flooding (70%), water shortages (70%). and air pollution (70%). More than six in ten think global warming is affecting hurricanes (69%), reduced snowpack (68%), tornados (67%), agricultural pests and diseases (65%), water pollution (63%), and electricity power outages (62%).

Among these, about four in ten Americans think global warming is affecting wildfires (42%) and extreme heat (40%) in the United States “a lot.”

6.3. About two in three Americans think wildfires have increased as a result of global warming.

About two in three Americans (65%) either “strongly” (31%) or “somewhat” (34%) agree that wildfires have increased around the world as a result of global warming.

6.4. A majority of Americans think extreme weather poses a risk to their community.

A majority of Americans (56%) think extreme weather poses either a “high” (19%) or “moderate” (37%) risk to their community over the next 10 years. Fewer think extreme weather poses either a “low” risk (31%) or “no” risk (6%).

6.5. A majority of Americans are worried about harm from environmental problems in their local area.

Section 6.2 of this report outlined the degree to which Americans think global warming is already affecting numerous environmental problems. This section details how worried Americans are that each of those environmental problems will harm their local area in the future. A majority of Americans are at least “a little worried” about harm to their local area from electricity power outages (78%), water pollution (77%), air pollution (73%), extreme heat (71%), agricultural pests and diseases (70%), droughts (69%), water shortages (68%), flooding (61%), wildfires (61%), and tornados (60%). Fewer are worried about rising sea levels (48%), hurricanes (47%), and reduced snowpack (44%).

Appendix I: Data Tables

Data Tables can be found beginning on p. 28 of the PDF version of the report:

climate-change-american-mind-april-2022

Appendix II: Survey Method

The data in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,018 American adults, aged 18 and older. The survey was conducted April 13 – May 2, 2022. All questionnaires were self-administered by respondents in a web-based environment. The median completion time for the survey was 27 minutes.

The sample was drawn from the Ipsos KnowledgePanel®, an online panel of members drawn using probability sampling methods. Prospective members are recruited using a combination of random digit dial and address-based sampling techniques that cover virtually all (non-institutional) resident phone numbers and addresses in the United States. Those contacted who would choose to join the panel but do not have access to the Internet are loaned computers and given Internet access so they may participate.

The sample therefore includes a representative cross-section of American adults – irrespective of whether they have Internet access, use only a cell phone, etc. Key demographic variables were weighted, post survey, to match U.S. Census Bureau norms.

From November 2008 to December 2018, no KnowledgePanel® member participated in more than one Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) survey. Beginning with the April 2019 survey, panel members who have participated in CCAM surveys in the past, excluding the most recent two surveys, may be randomly selected for participation. In the current survey, 217 respondents participated in a previous CCAM survey.

The survey instrument was designed by Anthony Leiserowitz, Seth Rosenthal, Jennifer Carman, Matthew Goldberg, Karine Lacroix, and Jennifer Marlon of Yale University, and Edward Maibach, John Kotcher, Teresa Myers, and Eryn Campbell of George Mason University. All graphics (charts and tables) were designed and created by Liz Neyens and Jennifer Marlon of Yale University.

Sample details and margins of error

All samples are subject to some degree of sampling error – that is, statistical results obtained from a sample can be expected to differ somewhat from results that would be obtained if every member of the target population were interviewed. Average margins of error for each wave, at the 95% confidence level, are plus or minus 3 percentage points except where noted.

• April 2022: Fielded April 13 – May 2 (n = 1,018)
• September 2021: Fielded September 10 – 20 (n = 1,006)
• March 2021: Fielded March 18 – 29 (n = 1,037)
• December 2020: Fielded December 3 – December 17 (n = 1,036)
• Apri 2020: Fielded April 8 – April 17 (n = 1,029)
• November 2019: Fielded November 8 – November 20 (n = 1,303)
• April 2019: Fielded March 29 – April 8 (n = 1,291)
• December 2018: Fielded November 28 – December 11 (n = 1,114)
• March 2018: Fielded March 7 – March 24 (n = 1,278)
• October 2017: Fielded October 20 – November 1 (n = 1,304)
• May 2017: Fielded May 18 – June 6 (n = 1,266)
• November 2016: Fielded November 18 – December 1 (n = 1,226)
• March 2016: Fielded March 18 – 31 (n = 1,204)
• October 2015: Fielded September 30 – October 19 (n = 1,330)
• March 2015: Fielded February 27 – March 10 (n = 1,263)
• October 2014: Fielded October 17 – 28 (n = 1,275)
• April 2014: Fielded April 15 – 22 (n = 1,013)
• November 2013: Fielded November 23 – December 9 (n = 830)
• April 2013: Fielded April 10 – 15 (n = 1,045)
• September 2012: Fielded August 31 – September 12 (n = 1,061)
• March 2012: Fielded March 12 – March 30 (n = 1,008)
• November 2011: Fielded October 20 – November 16 (n = 1,000)
• May 2011: Fielded April 23 – May 12 (n = 1,010)
• June 2010: Fielded May 14 – June 1 (n = 1,024)
• January 2010: Fielded December 24, 2009 – January 3, 2010 (n = 1,001).
• November 2008: Fielded October 7 – November 12 (n = 2,164).
  • Data were collected over two periods: from October 7 – October 20 and from October 24 – November 12. Margin of error plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Rounding error

In data tables, bases specified are unweighted, but percentages are weighted to match national population parameters.

For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., “strongly agree” + “somewhat agree”) are rounded after sums are calculated. For example, in some cases, the sum of 25% + 25% might be reported as 51% (e.g., 25.3% + 25.3% = 50.6%, which, after rounding, would be reported as 25% + 25% = 51%).

Appendix III: Sample Demographics

Sample demographics can be found on p. 93 of the PDF version of the report:

climate-change-american-mind-april-2022