Climate Change in the American Mind, March 2021

Report Summary

Our latest national survey finds Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (70% versus 15%). Those who are “very” or “extremely” sure global warming is happening outnumber those who are “very” or “extremely” sure it is not by more than 5 to 1 (50% versus 9%). The report includes many other interesting findings, including how often Americans hear and talk about global warming.

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Interview dates: March 18 – 29, 2021. Interviews: 1,037 Adults (18+). Average margin of error +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Executive Summary

Drawing on a nationally representative survey (n = 1,037), this report describes Americans’ beliefs and attitudes about global warming. The survey was fielded from March 18 – 29, 2021. This report builds on two previous reports based on data from this same survey that focused on public support for U.S. domestic climate policy and public support for international climate action. Among the key findings of this report:

A majority of Americans are worried about harm from a range of environmental hazards in their local area including water pollution (73%), air pollution (72%), extreme heat (68%), agricultural pests and diseases (65%), droughts (61%), water shortages (56%), flooding (56%), and tornados (53%).

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (70% versus 15%). Those who are “very” or “extremely” sure global warming is happening outnumber those who are “very” or “extremely” sure it is not by more than 5 to 1 (50% versus 9%).

More than half of Americans (57%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. Three in ten (30%) think it is due mostly to natural changes in the environment.

More than half of Americans (57%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. However, only about one in five (22%) understand how strong the level of consensus among scientists is (i.e., that more than 90% of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening).

A majority of Americans (64%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming. One in four (25%) are “very worried.”

More than four in ten Americans think people in the United States are being harmed by global warming “right now” (45%), and about four in ten say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming (42%).

More than four in ten Americans (45%) think they will be harmed by global warming, and nearly half think their family (48%) will be harmed. Half or more Americans think global warming will harm people in their community (50%), people in the U.S. (63%), people in developing countries (68%), the world’s poor (68%), future generations of people (71%), and plant and animal species (71%).

Two in three Americans (67%) say they “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends, while one in three (33%) say they do so “occasionally” or “often.”

Nearly half of Americans (48%) say they hear about global warming in the media at least once a month. Fewer (20%) say they hear people they know talk about global warming at least once a month.

Two in three Americans (67%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely,” “very,” or “somewhat” important to them personally, while one in three (33%) say it is either “not too” or “not at all” personally important.

Fewer than half of Americans think their friends and family expect them to take action, or take action themselves, on global warming: 42% think it is at least “moderately” important to their family and friends that they take action (an injunctive norm). Fewer (36%) say their family and friends make at least “a moderate amount of effort” to reduce global warming (a descriptive norm).

About two in three Americans (65%) feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.

Few Americans (12%) agree with the statement “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming,” while about six in ten (63%) disagree.

Six in ten Americans (60%) disagree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming,” while four in ten (40%) agree.

A majority of Americans (54%) disagree with the statement “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes to their lives.”

About six in ten Americans (61%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States; three in ten think it is being affected “a lot” (31%).

About two in three Americans (65%) either “strongly” (29%) or “somewhat” (36%) agree that wildfires have increased around the world as a result of global warming.

A majority of Americans (55%) think extreme weather poses either a “high” (14%) or “moderate” (41%) risk to their community over the next 10 years.

1. Global Warming Beliefs

1.1. Seven in ten Americans think global warming is happening.

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of more than 4 to 1.

Seven in ten Americans (70%) think global warming is happening. By contrast, 15% of Americans think global warming is not happening.

1.2. Half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. About one in ten are as sure it isn’t happening.

Half of Americans (50%) are either “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. Far fewer (9%) are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is not happening.

Over the last five years (since our March 2016 survey), the percentage of Americans who are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening has increased by seven percentage points.

1.3. A majority of Americans think global warming is mostly human-caused.

The 2018 U.S. National Climate Assessment (written and reviewed by hundreds of climate experts over the course of four years) states: “Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the only factors that can account for the observed warming over the last century; there are no credible alternative human or natural explanations supported by the observational evidence” (pp. 39-40).

A majority of Americans (57%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, three in ten (30%) think it is due mostly to natural changes in the environment.

1.4. More than half of Americans understand that most scientists think global warming is happening.

A review by John Cook and colleagues ¹ found that six independent, peer-reviewed studies examining the extent of the scientific consensus about global warming have concluded that between 90% and 100% of climate scientists are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening. The most rigorous of these studies found that 97% of climate scientists are convinced that global warming is happening and human-caused.

A majority of Americans (57%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. By contrast, about one in four Americans (24%) think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening. Very few Americans (3%) believe that most scientists think global warming is not happening.

1.5. About one in five Americans understand that almost all climate scientists (more than 90%) have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening.

Although the majority of Americans now understand that most scientists think global warming is happening, fewer understand just how strong the level of consensus among scientists is. Only about one in five Americans (22%) understand that nearly all climate scientists (more than 90%) are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening. However, that number has doubled over the last five years (since March 2016; see Data Tables).

About one in four Americans (24%) say they “don’t know” what percentage of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening.²

Public misunderstanding of the scientific consensus – which has been found in each of our surveys since 2008 – has significant consequences. Other research has identified public understanding of the scientific consensus as an important “gateway belief ” that influences other important beliefs (i.e., that global warming is happening, human-caused, and worrisome) and support for action.³

¹Cook, J., Oreskes, N., Doran, P. T., Anderegg, W. R. I., Verheggen, B., Maibach, E. W., Carlton, J. S., Lewandowsky, S., Skuce, A. G., Green, S. A., Nuccitelli, D., Jacobs, P., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., & Rice., K. (2016). Consensus on consensus: A synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters 11(4). doi:10.1088/17489326/ 11/4/048002

²Respondents were asked to estimate the percentage of climate scientists who have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening by moving a slider bar which appeared on the screen of their computer. This slider allowed respondents to move the marker from 0% on the left to 100% on the right, or to any whole number between the two. A “don’t know” response option appeared below the slider bar

³For more information, see: van der Linden, S. L., Leiserowitz, A. A., Feinberg, G. D., & Maibach, E. W. (2015). The scientific consensus on climate change as a gateway belief: Experimental evidence. PLoS ONE, 10(2). https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0118489

2. Emotional Responses to Global Warming

2.1. Most Americans are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming.

Most Americans (64%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, an increase of six percentage points over the past five years (since March 2016). One in four Americans (25%) are “very worried,” an increase of nine percentage points over the past five years.

3. Perceived Risks of Global Warming

3.1. About four in ten Americans say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.

About four in ten Americans (42%) say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming, while more than half (57%) say they have not.

3.2. More than four in ten Americans think people in the U.S. are being harmed “right now” by global warming.

More than four in ten Americans (45%) think people in the U.S. are being harmed by global warming “right now,” an increase of seven percentage points over the last five years (since March 2016).

3.3. Many Americans think they will be harmed by global warming, but think others will be harmed more.

Many Americans understand that global warming will cause harm. Americans are most likely to think that plant and animal species (71%) and future generations of people (71%) will be harmed “a great deal” or “a moderate amount” by global warming. Six in ten or more think the world’s poor (68%), people in developing countries (68%), and people in the U.S. (63%) will be harmed, and half think people in their community (50%) will be harmed. Four in ten or more think their family (48%), and they themselves (45%) will be harmed.

4. Personal and Social Engagement with Global Warming

4.1. Most Americans “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends.

Two in three Americans (67%) say they “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends. Only one in three (33%) say they discuss global warming “occasionally” or “often.”

4.2. Nearly half of Americans hear about global warming in the media at least once a month; fewer hear people they know talking about it at least once a month.

Nearly half of Americans (48%) say they hear about global warming in the media once a month or more often, while about four in ten (41%) say they hear about global warming in the media several times a year or less often, including seven percent who say they never hear about global warming in the media.

Only one in five Americans (20%) say they hear people they know talk about global warming once a month or more often. In contrast, seven in ten (70%) say they hear people they know talk about it several times a year or less often, including 28% who say they never hear people they know talk about global warming.

4.3. Two in three Americans say the issue of global warming is personally important.

Two in three Americans (67%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely” (13%), “very” (22%), or “somewhat” (33%) important to them personally. One in three (33%) say global warming is either “not too” (16%) or “not at all” (17%) personally important.

4.4. Fewer than half of Americans perceive social norms for taking action on global warming.

Social science research has shown that two types of social norms can have a powerful influence on people’s behavior: injunctive norms (the belief that friends and family expect you to behave in a given way) and descriptive norms (the belief that friends and family are themselves behaving in that way).¹

Forty-two percent of Americans perceive an injunctive norm, saying it is either “extremely” (5%), “very” (12%), or “moderately” important (25%) to their family and friends that they take action to reduce global warming. Fewer Americans (36%) perceive a descriptive norm, saying their family and friends make either “a great deal of effort” (3%), “a lot of effort” (7%), or “a moderate amount of effort” (27%) to reduce global warming.

4.5. About two in three Americans feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.

About two in three Americans (65%) agree either “strongly” (16%) or “somewhat” (49%) that they feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.

¹Schultz, P. W., Nolan, J. M., Cialdini, R. B., Goldstein, N. J., & Griskevicius, V. (2007). The constructive, destructive, and reconstructive power of social norms. Psychological Science, 18(5), 429-434. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/j.14679280.2007.01917

5. Efficacy Beliefs

5.1. Few Americans think it is too late to do anything about global warming.

Only 12% of Americans either “strongly” (3%) or “somewhat” (9%) agree with the statement “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming.” In contrast, about six in ten Americans (63%) are more optimistic – they either “strongly” (38%) or “somewhat” (25%) disagree that it’s already too late to do anything about global warming.

5.2. Most Americans disagree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming.”

Four in ten Americans (40%) either “strongly” (16%) or “somewhat” (24%) agree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming.” In contrast, about six in ten Americans (60%) either “strongly” (21%) or “somewhat” (38%) disagree that individual actions won’t make a difference.

5.3. A majority of Americans do not agree that new technologies can solve global warming without individual action.

Many Americans (45%) either “strongly” or “somewhat” agree that “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes in their lives,” while 54% of Americans either “strongly” or “somewhat” disagree.

6. Impacts of Global Warming

6.1. About six in ten Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States.

About six in ten Americans (61%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including more than half (54%) who think global warming is affecting U.S. weather either “a lot” (31%) or “some” (23%).

As noted above, 31% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather “a lot.” The percentage of Americans who think global warming is affecting the weather “a lot” is eight percentage points higher than when we first asked this question in April 2013.

6.2. About two in three Americans think wildfires have increased as a result of global warming.

About two in three Americans either “strongly” (29%) or “somewhat” (36%) agree that wildfires have increased around the world as a result of global warming.

6.3. More than one in three Americans think allergy season has become more severe in their area.

 Although the majority of Americans (57%) think allergy season in their area has stayed about the same in the past few years, more than one in three (38%) think it has become more severe, while very few (4%) think it has become less severe.

6.4. A majority of Americans think extreme weather poses a risk to their community.

A majority of Americans (55%) think extreme weather poses either a “high” (14%) or “moderate” (41%) risk to their community over the next 10 years. Fewer think extreme weather poses either a “low” risk (31%) or “no” risk (7%).

6.5. A majority of Americans are worried about harm from environmental hazards in their local area.

 A majority of Americans are at least “a little worried” about environmental hazards in their local areas, including water pollution (73%), air pollution (72%), extreme heat (68%), agricultural pests and diseases (65%), droughts (61%), water shortages (56%), flooding (56%), and tornados (53%). Fewer are worried about wildfires (48%), rising sea levels (40%), reduced snowpack (38%), and hurricanes (36%).

Appendix I: Data Tables

Data tables can be found beginning on p. 28 of the PDF version of the full report:

climate-change-american-mind-march-2021

Appendix II: Survey Method

The data in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,037 American adults, aged 18 and older. The survey was conducted March 18 – 29, 2021. All questionnaires were self-administered by respondents in a web-based environment. The survey took, on average, 25 minutes to complete. The sample was drawn from the Ipsos (formerly GfK) KnowledgePanel®, an online panel of members drawn using probability sampling methods. Prospective members are recruited using a combination of random digit dial and address-based sampling techniques that cover virtually all (non-institutional) resident phone numbers and addresses in the United States. Those contacted who would choose to join the panel but do not have access to the Internet are loaned computers and given Internet access so they may participate.

The sample therefore includes a representative cross-section of American adults – irrespective of whether they have Internet access, use only a cell phone, etc. Key demographic variables were weighted, post survey, to match U.S. Census Bureau norms.

From November 2008 to December 2018, no KnowledgePanel® member participated in more than one Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) survey. Beginning with the April 2019 survey, panel members who have participated in CCAM surveys in the past, excluding the most recent two surveys, may be randomly selected for participation. In the current survey, 316 respondents participated in a previous CCAM survey.

The survey instrument was designed by Anthony Leiserowitz, Seth Rosenthal, Jennifer Carman, Matthew Goldberg, Karine Lacroix, and Jennifer Marlon of Yale University, and Edward Maibach and John Kotcher of George Mason University. The charts and tables were designed by Xinran Wang and Jennifer Marlon of Yale University.

Sample details and margins of error

All samples are subject to some degree of sampling error – that is, statistical results obtained from a sample can be expected to differ somewhat from results that would be obtained if every member of the target population were interviewed. Average margins of error for each wave, at the 95% confidence level, are plus or minus 3 percentage points except where noted.

• March 2021: Fielded March 18 – 29 (n = 1,037)
• December 2020: Fielded December 3 – December 17 (n = 1,036)
• Apri 2020: Fielded April 8 – April 17 (n = 1,029)
• November 2019: Fielded November 8 – November 20 (n = 1,303)
• April 2019: Fielded March 29 – April 8 (n = 1,291)
• December 2018: Fielded November 28 – December 11 (n = 1,114)
• March 2018: Fielded March 7 – March 24 (n = 1,278)
• October 2017: Fielded October 20 – November 1 (n = 1,304)
• May 2017: Fielded May 18 – June 6 (n = 1,266)
• November 2016: Fielded November 18 – December 1 (n = 1,226)
• March 2016: Fielded March 18 – 31 (n = 1,204)
• October 2015: Fielded September 30 – October 19 (n = 1,330)
• March 2015: Fielded February 27 – March 10 (n = 1,263)
• October 2014: Fielded October 17 – 28 (n = 1,275)
• April 2014: Fielded April 15 – 22 (n = 1,013)
• November 2013: Fielded November 23 – December 9 (n = 830)
• April 2013: Fielded April 10 – 15 (n = 1,045)
• September 2012: Fielded August 31 – September 12 (n = 1,061)
• March 2012: Fielded March 12 – March 30 (n = 1,008)
• November 2011: Fielded October 20 – November 16 (n = 1,000)
• May 2011: Fielded April 23 – May 12 (n = 1,010)
• June 2010: Fielded May 14 – June 1 (n = 1,024)
• January 2010: Fielded December 24, 2009 – January 3, 2010 (n = 1,001).
• November 2008: Fielded October 7 – November 12 (n = 2,164).
  • Data were collected over two periods: from October 7 – October 20 and from October 24 – November 12. Margin of error plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Rounding error

For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., “strongly agree” + “somewhat agree”) are rounded after sums are calculated (e.g., 25.3% + 25.3% = 50.6%, which, after rounding, would be reported as 25% + 25% = 51%).

Appendix III: Sample Demographics

Sample demographics can be found on p. 66 of the PDF version of the full report:

climate-change-american-mind-march-2021