Politics & Global Warming, September 2021

Report Summary

Drawing on a nationally representative survey (n = 1,006; including 898 registered voters), this report describes how Democratic, Independent, and Republican registered voters view climate and energy policies.

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, Interview dates: September 10 – 20, 2021. Average margin of error +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Executive Summary

Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population (n = 1,006; including the 898 registered voters whose data are included in this report), these findings describe how registered voters view a variety of domestic climate and energy policies. We will follow this next week with a report detailing registered voters’ views about international climate issues. The survey was fielded from September 10 – 20, 2021. This executive summary presents the results from all registered voters, while the main text of the report goes further by breaking the results down by political party and ideology.

Global Warming and Clean Energy as Government Priorities

• 60% of registered voters say global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress.
• 69% of registered voters say developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress.

Global Warming and Energy Policies

Majorities of registered voters support a range of policies to reduce carbon pollution and promote clean energy. These include:

• 86% support providing tax incentives or rebates to homeowners, landlords, and businesses to make existing buildings more energy efficient.
• 81% support funding more research into renewable energy sources.
• 81% support providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels.
• 79% support providing tax incentives or rebates to homeowners, landlords, and businesses to purchase appliances that can be powered without burning fossil fuels.
• 75% support setting aside 30% of America’s lands and waters for conservation by 2030.
• 75% support regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant.
• 74% support requiring publicly traded corporations to disclose how much carbon pollution they produce
• 70% support transitioning the U.S. economy (including electric utilities, transportation, buildings, and industry) from fossil fuels to 100% clean energy by 2050.
• 70% support increasing federal funding to low-income communities and communities of color who are disproportionally harmed by air and water pollution.
• 69% support requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a tax on the carbon pollution they produce, and using that revenue to reduce other taxes (such as the federal income tax) by an equal amount (i.e., a revenue-neutral carbon tax).
• 66% support requiring electric utilities to produce 100% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by the year 2035.

Declaring Climate Change a National Emergency

• 63% support a U.S. president declaring global warming a national emergency if Congress does not act.

Energy Production as an Economic Issue

• 52% say that policies to promote clean energy will improve economic growth and create jobs, while 31% say these policies will reduce growth and cost jobs.
• 64% say that increasing production of clean energy in the U.S. will produce more new jobs than will increasing fossil fuel production.

Who Should Act?

• 73% say corporations and industry should do more to address global warming.
• Half or more say the following should do more to address global warming: citizens (69%), the Republican Party (66%), the U.S. Congress (64%), their local government officials (61%), the Democratic Party (60%), their governor (60%), the media (59%), President Biden (58%), and they themselves (55%).

Local and State Government Action on Global Warming

• Majorities support climate-friendly policies for their local community, including providing funding to help homeowners make energy-efficient improvements to their homes (85%), increasing the availability of public transportation in their county (85%), and constructing bike paths and installing bike lanes on city streets (80%).

Political Actions to Limit Global Warming

• 57% say they would sign a petition about global warming, although only 19% say they have done so in the past year.
• Fewer say they would take other actions, including 34% who would donate money to an organization working on global warming (compared with 15% who say they have actually done so in the past year), 33% who would contact government officials about global warming (compared with 10% who say they have done so in the past year), 31% who would volunteer their time to organization working on global warming (compared with 6% who say they have done so in the past year), and 25% who would meet with an elected official or their staff about global warming.
• 29% say they would support an organization engaging in non-violent civil disobedience against corporate or government activities that make global warming worse, and 15% say they would personally engage in it.
• 1% say they are currently participating in a campaign to convince elected officials to take action to reduce global warming. 9% say they would “definitely” join such a campaign and an additional 20% say they would “probably” join one.

Educating Students About Global Warming

78% support schools teaching children the causes, consequences, and potential solutions to global warming.

Reading Notes

• This report includes only registered voters.
• References to Republicans and Democrats throughout include respondents who initially identify as either a Republican or Democrat, as well as those who do not initially identify as a Republican or Democrat but who say they “are closer to” one of those parties (i.e., “leaners”) in a follow-up question. The category “Independents” does not include any of these “leaners.”
• For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., “strongly support” + “somewhat support”) are rounded after sums are calculated. For example, in some cases, the sum of 25% + 25% might be reported as 51% (e.g., 25.3% + 25.3% = 50.6%, which, after rounding, is 51%).
• Weighted percentages among registered voters of each of the groups discussed in this report:
  • Democrats (total) including leaners: 48%
    • Liberal Democrats: 26%
    • Moderate/Conservative Democrats: 22%
      • (Moderate Democrats: 18%; Conservative Democrats: 3%)
  • Independents excluding leaners: 10%
  • Republicans (total) including leaners: 37%
    • Liberal/Moderate Republicans: 14%
      • (Liberal Republicans: 1%; Moderate Republicans: 13%)
    • Conservative Republicans: 23%
  • No party/Not interested in politics/No response: 5% (included in results reported for “All Registered Voters” only)
• The full text of all survey items can be found in the data tables.

1. Global Warming and Clean Energy as Government Priorities

1.1. Most Democrats think global warming should be a “high” or “very high” priority for the president and Congress.

As we reported previously, 60% of registered voters think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress. This includes large majorities of liberal Democrats (94%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (80%), 53% of Independents (see data tables), and 45% of liberal/moderate Republicans. Relatively few conservative Republicans (17%) think so.

Over the past five years (since November 2016), the percentage of liberal Democrats who think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress has increased by 14 percentage points, and the percentage of moderate/conservative Democrats who think so has increased by 11 percentage points.

1.2. Most registered voters think developing sources of clean energy should be a “high” or “very high” priority for the president and Congress.

Sixty-nine percent of registered voters think developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress (see data tables). This includes nearly all liberal Democrats (98%), a large majority of moderate/conservative Democrats (84%), and most Independents (64%, see data tables), a majority of liberal/moderate Republicans (56%), and one in three conservative Republicans (33%).

2. Support for Policies to Reduce the Pollution that Causes Global Warming

2.1. Most registered voters, including many Republicans, support climate-friendly energy policies.

Registered voters across the political spectrum support many energy policies designed to reduce carbon pollution and fossil fuel dependence and promote clean energy, including:

• Providing tax incentives or rebates to homeowners, landlords, and businesses to make existing buildings more energy efficient: 86% of registered voters, 94% of both liberal Democrats and moderate/conservative Democrats, 79% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 69% of conservative Republicans.
• Funding more research into renewable energy sources: 81% of registered voters, 98% of liberal Democrats, 91% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 72% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 59% of conservative Republicans.
• Providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels: 81% of registered voters, 97% of liberal Democrats, 90% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 76% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 59% of conservative Republicans.
• Providing tax incentives or rebates to homeowners, landlords, and businesses to purchase appliances that can be powered without burning fossil fuels (such as electric water heaters, electric heat pumps, and electric induction cooktops): 79% of registered voters, 93% of liberal Democrats, 90% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 73% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 54% of conservative Republicans.
• Setting aside 30% of American’s lands and waters for conservation by 2030: 75% of registered voters, 93% of liberal Democrats, 89% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 69% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 48% of conservative Republicans.
• Regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant: 75% of registered voters, 94% of liberal Democrats, 90% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 68% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 41% of conservative Republicans.
• Requiring publicly traded corporations to disclose how much carbon pollution they produce: 74% of registered voters, 92% of liberal Democrats, 90% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 66% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 44% of conservative Republicans.
• Transitioning the U.S. economy (including electric utilities, transportation, buildings, and industry) from fossil fuels to 100% clean energy by 2050: 70% of registered voters, 95% of liberal Democrats, 86% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 58% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 32% of conservative Republicans.
• Increasing federal funding to low-income communities and communities of color who are disproportionally harmed by air and water pollution: 70% of registered voters, 93% of liberal Democrats, 82% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 59% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 39% of conservative Republicans.
• Requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a tax on the carbon pollution they produce, and use that revenue to reduce other taxes (such as the federal income tax) by an equal amount i.e., a revenue-neutral carbon tax]: 69% of registered voters, 92% of liberal Democrats, 82% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 63% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 32% of conservative Republicans.
• Requiring electric utilities to produce 100% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by the year 2035: 66% of registered voters, 90% of liberal Democrats, 85% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 51% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 26% of conservative Republicans.

2.2. A majority of registered voters would support a president declaring a national emergency to act on global warming.

More than six in ten registered voters (63%; see data tables) would “strongly” or “somewhat” would support a U.S. president declaring global warming a national emergency to act on it if Congress does not. This action has the support of large majorities of both liberal Democrats (92%, with 61% saying they “strongly support” it; see data tables) and moderate/conservative Democrats (82%), as well as majorities of Independents (57%) and liberal/moderate Republicans (54%). By contrast, one in five conservative Republicans (20%) would support it, while 79% of conservative Republicans would oppose it (including 62% who would “strongly oppose” it, see data tables).

3. Energy Production as an Economic Issue

3.1. About half of registered voters think policies that promote clean energy will improve economic growth and create jobs.

About half of registered voters (52%) think policies that promote clean energy will improve economic growth and create jobs, while about three in ten (31%) think it will have the opposite effect, reducing growth and costing jobs, and 16% think it will have no impact either way.¹

Opinion is sharply divided along political lines – large majorities of liberal Democrats (85%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (69%) think clean energy policies will have a positive impact on the economy and jobs, while 39% of liberal/moderate Republicans and 71% of conservative Republicans think they will have a negative impact.

3.2. Most registered voters think the clean energy industry will create more good jobs than the fossil fuel industry.

More than six in ten registered voters (64%) think increasing production of clean energy in the U.S. will produce more new jobs than will increasing fossil fuel production, while about one in three (35%) think the opposite (that increasing fossil fuel production will create more jobs than will increasing clean energy production).²

Large majorities of liberal Democrats (94%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (83%), and about half of liberal/moderate Republicans (52%) think clean energy production will produce more good jobs. In contrast, about three in four conservative Republicans (77%) think increasing fossil fuel production will create more good U.S. jobs.

¹The full text of the survey item and response categories are: Please indicate which one of these statements comes closest to your own views – even if it is not exactly right: Overall, government policies intended to transition away from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) and toward clean energy (solar, wind) will… (a) Improve economic growth and provide new jobs; (b) Have no impact on economic growth or jobs; (c) Reduce economic growth and cost jobs.

²The full text of the survey item and response categories are: Generally speaking, which do you think will produce more good jobs in the U.S.? (a) Increasing production of clean energy such as wind and solar; (b) Increasing production of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas.

4. Who is Responsible for Action on Global Warming?

4.1. Seven in ten registered voters want corporations and industry to do more to address global warming. Most also want more action from citizens and government.

Across party lines, registered voters say corporations and industry should do “much more” or “more” to address global warming (73% of all registered voters; including 94% of liberal Democrats, 87% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 71% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 38% of conservative Republicans).

Half or more registered voters, including large majorities of both liberal and moderate/conservative Democrats and about half or more liberal/moderate Republicans, say citizens themselves (69%), the Republican Party (66%), the U.S. Congress (64%), their local government officials (61%), the Democratic Party (60%), their governor (60%), the media (59%), President Biden (58%), and they themselves (55%), should do more.

About six in ten liberal/moderate Republicans (61%) say their party (the Republican Party) should do more to address global warming, while only about one in four conservative Republicans (24%) say so. Large majorities of both liberal Democrats (90%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (76%) say their party (the Democratic Party) should do more.

5. State and Local Government Action on Global Warming

5.1. Large majorities of registered voters support climate-friendly policies for their local community.

Across party and ideological lines, large majorities of registered voters support climate-friendly policies for their local community, including providing funding to help homeowners make energy-efficient improvements to their homes (85%), increasing the availability of public transportation in their county (85%), and constructing bike paths and installing bike lanes (80%). Majorities of liberal Democrats, moderate/conservative Democrats, liberal/moderate Republicans, and conservative Republicans support these policies.

6. Political Actions to Limit Global Warming

6.1. Many registered voters are willing to take political actions to reduce global warming.

More than half of registered voters (57%) say they would sign a petition about global warming, including majorities of liberal Democrats (86%), moderate/conservative Democrats (69%), and liberal/Moderate Republicans (60%), but very few conservative Republicans (17%). About three in ten or more registered voters say they would donate money (34%) or volunteer their time (31%) to an organization working on global warming. One in three (33%) would contact government officials about global warming and one in four (25%) would meet with an elected official or their staff.

About three in ten registered voters (29%) would support an organization engaging in non-violent civil disobedience against corporate or government activities that make global warming worse, and 15% (including 32% of liberal Democrats) would personally engage in such non-violent civil disobedience.

6.2. Relatively few registered voters have engaged in political actions to reduce global warming in the past year.

Relatively few registered voters have engaged in political actions to reduce global warming over the past 12 months, including 19% who say they have signed a petition about global warming at least “once,” and 15% who say they have donated money to an organization working on global warming at least “once.” Fewer (6%) have volunteered their time to an organization working on global warming at least “once” in the past year. Liberal Democrats are the most likely to say they have engaged in these actions while conservative Republicans are the least likely.

6.3. One in ten registered voters have urged elected officials to reduce global warming.

One in ten registered voters (10%) have contacted government officials to urge them to take action to reduce global warming at least “once” over the past 12 months. This includes 22% of liberal Democrats, seven percent of both moderate/conservative Democrats and liberal/moderate Republicans, and four percent of conservative Republicans.

6.4. About three in ten registered voters are participating, or willing to participate, in a campaign to convince elected officials to take action to reduce global warming. Actual participation in a campaign remains low.

A total of three in ten registered voters (30%) say they are “probably” (20%) or “definitely” (9%) willing to join a campaign to convince elected officials to take action to reduce global warming or are already currently participating such a campaign (1%; see data tables). This includes a total of 55% of liberal Democrats (2% “currently,” 16% “definitely,” and 37% “probably”), 36% of moderate/conservative Democrats (1% “currently,” 8% “definitely,” and 28% “probably”), and 19% of liberal/moderate Republicans (3% “currently,” 3% “definitely,” and 13% “probably”), but only eight percent of conservative Republicans (less than 1% “currently,” 4% “definitely,” and 4% “probably).

7. Educating Students About Global Warming

The Next Generation Science Standards for K-12 STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) education in the United States¹ recommend that climate change be included in school science curricula.

A large majority of registered voters (78%) support schools teaching children about the causes, consequences, and potential solutions to global warming. Support spans the political spectrum, including nearly all liberal and moderate/conservative Democrats (97% and 94% respectively), large majorities of Independents (72%; see data tables) and liberal/moderate Republicans (78%), and more than four in ten conservative Republicans (46%).

¹The Next Generation Science Standards were developed by a collaboration of scientists and educators at the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences; the American Academy for the Advancement of Science; the National Teacher’s Association; 26 states; and Achieve (a non-profit organization). Released in 2013, the standards represent the most current, research-based method of educating K-12 students in STEM and preparing them for STEM careers. See: nextgenscience.org

Appendix I: Data Tables

Data Tables can be found beginning on p. 20 of the PDF version of the full report:

politics-global-warming-september-2021b

Appendix II: Survey Method

The data in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,006 American adults, aged 18 and older. Results are reported for the subset of 898 registered voters who participated in the survey. The survey was conducted September 10 – 20, 2021. All questionnaires were self-administered by respondents in a web-based environment. The survey took, on average, about 24 minutes to complete.

The sample was drawn from the Ipsos (formerly GfK) KnowledgePanel^®, an online panel of members drawn using probability sampling methods. Prospective members are recruited using a combination of random digit dial and address-based sampling techniques that cover virtually all (non-institutional) resident phone numbers and addresses in the United States. Those contacted who would choose to join the panel but do not have access to the Internet are loaned computers and given Internet access so they may participate.

The sample therefore includes a representative cross-section of American adults – irrespective of whether they have Internet access, use only a cell phone, etc. Key demographic variables were weighted, post survey, to match US Census Bureau norms.

From November 2008 to December 2018, no KnowledgePanel^® member participated in more than one Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) survey. Beginning with the April 2019 survey, panel members who have participated in CCAM surveys in the past, excluding the most recent two surveys, may be randomly selected for participation. In the current survey, 300 respondents, 262 of whom are registered voters included in this report, participated in a previous CCAM survey.

The survey instrument was designed by Anthony Leiserowitz, Seth Rosenthal, Jennifer Carman, Matthew Goldberg, Karine Lacroix, and Jennifer Marlon of Yale University, and Edward Maibach and John Kotcher of George Mason University.

Margins of error

All samples are subject to some degree of sampling error – that is, statistical results obtained from a sample can be expected to differ somewhat from results that would be obtained if every member of the target population was interviewed. Average margins of error, at the 95% confidence level, are as follows:

• Total registered voters (n = 898): Plus or minus 3 percentage points.
  • Democrats (total; n = 410): Plus or minus 5 percentage points.
    • Liberal Democrats (n = 230): Plus or minus 6 percentage points.
    • Moderate/conservative Democrats (n = 176): Plus or minus 7 percentage points.
  • Independents (n = 90): Plus or minus 10 percentage points.
  • Republicans (total; n = 364): Plus or minus 5 percentage points.
    • Liberal/moderate Republicans (n = 127): Plus or minus 9 percentage points.
    • Conservative Republicans (n = 237): Plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Rounding error and tabulation

In data tables, bases specified are unweighted, but percentages are weighted to match national population parameters.

For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., “strongly support” + “somewhat support”) are rounded after sums are calculated. For example, in some cases, the sum of 25% + 25% might be reported as 51% (e.g., 25.3% + 25.3% = 50.6%, which, after rounding, would be reported as 25% + 25% = 51%).

Appendix III: Demographics

Sample demographics can be found on pp. 38 – 39 of the PDF version of the full report:

politics-global-warming-september-2021b

*Please note that the demographic tables were updated on October 22, 2021 to correct a one percentage-point error in the gender breakdown in the “full sample” table on page 39.