Climate Change in the American Mind: November 2016

Executive Summary

• Seven in ten Americans (70%) think global warming is happening, which nearly matches the
  highest level (71%), recorded in 2008. By contrast, only about one in eight Americans
  (13%) think global warming is not happening.
• Americans are also more certain global warming is happening – the proportion who are
  “extremely” or “very” sure it is happening (45%) is at its highest level since 2008. By
  contrast, far fewer – 7% – are “extremely” or “very sure” global warming is not happening.
• Over half of Americans (55%) understand that global warming is mostly human caused,
  which is the highest level since November 2008. By contrast, three in ten (30%) say it is due
  mostly to natural changes in the environment – the lowest level recorded since 2008.
• Only about one in seven Americans (15%) understand that nearly all climate scientists
  (more than 90%) are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening. However,
  this is an increase of 4 percentage points (from 11%) since March 2016.
• Six in ten Americans (61%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming.
  Further, the percentage of Americans who are “very worried” about global warming, 19%, is
  the highest recorded since our surveys began in 2008.
• Two in three Americans (66%) say they are “interested” in global warming and about half
  say they feel “hopeful” (48%) about it. Large minorities also feel “helpless” (46%),
  “disgusted” (42%), and/or “afraid” (42%) when they think about global warming.
• Six in ten Americans (60%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States,
  and half think weather is either being affected “a lot” (24%) or “some” (26%). However,
  even though the majority of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the U.S.,
  only about one in three Americans (36%) think people in the U.S. are being harmed by it
  “right now.”
• Most Americans think global warming is a relatively distant threat – they are most likely to
  think that it will harm future generations of people (71%), plant and animal species (70%),
  people living in developing countries (65%), or the world’s poor (65%). They are less likely
  to think it will harm people in the U.S. (59%), people in their community (49%), their family
  (46%), or themselves (41%).
• About one in three Americans (36%) say they have personally experienced the effects of
  global warming, two in three (64%) say they have not.
• Only one in three Americans (33%) discuss global warming with family and friends “often”
  or “occasionally,” while most say they rarely or never discuss it (67%).
• Six in ten Americans (61%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely” (10%),
  “very” (17%), or “somewhat” (34%) important to them personally. Four in ten (39%) say it
  is either “not too” (22%) or “not at all” (16%) important personally.
• About half of Americans (47%) say they have thought “a lot” (20%) or “some” (27%) about
  global warming. The other half (53%) say they have thought about global warming just “a
  little” (37%) or “not at all” (16%).
• By a three-to-one margin, Americans say that schools should teach children about the
  causes, consequences, and potential solutions to global warming (76% agree vs. 24% who
  disagree).
• Fewer than four in ten Americans (36%) think the American people can “definitely” or
  “probably” convince the U.S. Congress to pass legislation to reduce global warming. Only one
  in four (26%) say it is “definitely” or “probably” not possible.
• Few Americans are optimistic that humans will reduce global warming. Nearly half (48%)
  say humans could reduce global warming, but it’s unclear at this point whether we will do
  what is necessary, and nearly one in four (23%) say we won’t because people are unwilling
  to change their behavior. Only 5% say humans can and will successfully reduce global
  warming.
• Americans are most likely to think of global warming as an environmental (76%) or
  scientific (70%) issue. Majorities also say global warming is an agricultural (65%), health
  (62%), severe weather (61%), economic (60%), and/or political (56%) issue. Fewer
  consider global warming to be a moral (37%), national security (27%), poverty (25%),
  social justice (24%), or religious issue (8%).
• In the months following Pope Francis’s encyclical about climate change and visit to the U.S.
  in 2015, more Americans said that global warming is a “moral,” “social justice,” or “poverty”
  issue. Since then, however, these beliefs have returned to their pre-encyclical levels.

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This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the
American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Interview dates: November 18-December 1, Interviews: 1,226 Adults (18+). Average margin of error +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The research was funded by the 11th Hour Project, the Energy Foundation, the Grantham Foundation, and the MacArthur Foundation.

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Principal Investigators:

Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
[email protected]

Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD
George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication
[email protected]

Connie Roser-Renouf, PhD
George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication
[email protected]

Seth Rosenthal, PhD
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
[email protected]

Matthew Cutler, PhD
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
[email protected]

Cite as: Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Rosenthal, S., & Cutler, M. (2017). Climate
change in the American mind: November 2016. Yale University and George Mason University. New
Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.