Report Summary
This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Interview dates: April 18 – May 1, 2023. Interviews: 1,011 adults (18+). Average margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Principal Investigators:
Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD
George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication
Seth Rosenthal, PhD
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
John Kotcher, PhD
George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication
For all media and other inquiries, please email:
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication: Lisa Fernandez ([email protected]), Jon Ozaksut ([email protected]), and Eric Fine ([email protected])
George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication: Edward Maibach ([email protected]) and John Kotcher ([email protected])
Executive Summary
Drawing on a nationally representative survey (n = 1,011) conducted from April 18 – May 1, 2023, this report describes Americans’ beliefs and attitudes about global warming. Among the key findings of this report:
Global Warming Beliefs
- Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of nearly 5 to 1 (74% versus 15%).
- Those who are “very” or “extremely” sure global warming is happening outnumber those who are “very” or “extremely” sure it is not happening by more than 6 to 1 (53% versus 8%).
- A majority of Americans (61%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, 28% think it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment.
- A majority of Americans (58%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. However, only one in five (20%) understand how strong the level of consensus among scientists is (i.e., that more than 90% of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening).
Perceived Risks of Global Warming
- About half of Americans (48%) think people in the United States are being harmed by global warming “right now,” and nearly as many (44%) say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.
- Half or more Americans think global warming will harm future generations of people (71%), plant and animal species (70%), the world’s poor (69%), people in developing countries (68%), people in the United States (64%), people in their community (55%), or their family (52%). Many Americans also think they themselves (47%) will be harmed.
- About one in ten Americans (11%) have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.
Worry About Global Warming
- About two-thirds of Americans (66%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming. This includes 30% of Americans who say they are “very worried.”
Personal and Social Engagement with Global Warming
- A majority of Americans (54%) say they have thought about global warming “a lot” or “some.”
- Most Americans (66%) say they “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends, while 34% say they do so “occasionally” or “often.”
- Fewer than half of Americans think their friends and family take action on global warming or that their friends and family expect them to take action: 38% say their family and friends make at least “a moderate amount of effort” to reduce global warming (a descriptive norm) while 41% think it is at least “moderately” important to their family and friends that they take action (an injunctive norm).
- About half of Americans (52%) say they hear about global warming in the media about once a month or more frequently. Fewer (23%) say they hear people they know talk about global warming once a month or more frequently.
- About two in three Americans (65%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely,” “very,” or “somewhat” important to them personally, while 35% say it is either “not too” or “not at all” personally important.
- A majority of Americans (62%) say they feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.
- About three in ten Americans (28%) say they look for information about solutions to global warming several times a year or more often.
Fatalism
- About two-thirds of Americans (66%) disagree with the statement “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming,” while only 13% agree.
- A majority of Americans (57%) disagree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming,” while 42% agree.
- A majority of Americans (56%) disagree with the statement “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes in their lives,” while 44% agree.
Impacts of Global Warming
- A majority of Americans (65%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 33% who think weather is being affected “a lot.”
- Majorities of Americans think global warming is affecting many environmental problems in the United States including extreme heat (75%), rising sea levels (72%), wildfires (71%), droughts (71%), flooding (69%), water shortages (69%), hurricanes (68%), air pollution (67%), tornados (66%), reduced snow pack (62%), agricultural pests and diseases (61%), water pollution (60%), and electricity power outages (58%).
- A majority of Americans (56%) think extreme weather poses either a “high” (18%) or “moderate” (38%) risk to their community over the next 10 years.
- Majorities of Americans are worried their local area might be harmed by water pollution (72%), air pollution (72%), extreme heat (72%), electricity power outages (71%), droughts (68%), agricultural pests and diseases (61%), water shortages (60%), flooding (57%), tornados (56%), and wildfires (51%). Many Americans are also worried their local area might be harmed by rising sea levels (42%), hurricanes (41%), and reduced snow pack (36%).
1. Global Warming Beliefs
1.1. Most Americans think global warming is happening.
Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of nearly 5 to 1.
About three in four Americans (74%) think global warming is happening. By contrast, only 15% of Americans think global warming is not happening. Eleven percent say they don’t know if global warming is happening (refer to data tables, p. 31).
1.2. When Americans who “don’t know” if global warming is happening are asked for their best guess, more say “yes” than “no.”
Survey respondents who say they “don’t know” whether global warming is happening in response to the question in Section 1.1 (refer to data tables, p. 31) are then asked to provide their best guess as to whether or not global warming is happening. Over time, this follow-up question has produced a relatively stable pattern in which more of these Americans “lean” toward “yes” than “no” (refer to data tables, p. 32).
When the “leaners,” as determined by this follow-up question, are added to the totals of those who responded “yes” or “no” to the question in Section 1.1, we find that a total of 82% of Americans think global warming is happening or lean toward that position, while 18% think global warming is not happening or lean toward that position.
1.3. About half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening.
About half of Americans (53%) are either “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. Far fewer (8%) are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is not happening.
1.4. A majority of Americans think global warming is mostly human-caused.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment report, written and reviewed by thousands of climate experts worldwide, states: “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.”
A majority of Americans (61%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, 28% think it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment.
1.5. A majority of Americans understand that most scientists think global warming is happening.
A review by Cook and colleagues found that six independent, peer-reviewed studies examining the scientific consensus about global warming have concluded that between 90% and 100% of climate scientists are convinced human-caused global warming is happening. A more recent study found that as many as 98% of climate scientists are convinced global warming is happening and human-caused.
A majority of Americans (58%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. This percentage has trended generally upward since this survey began in 2008. By contrast, about one in five (22%) think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening. Very few Americans (2%) believe most scientists think global warming is not happening.
1.6. One in five Americans understand that almost all climate scientists (more than 90%) have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening.
Although the majority of Americans now understand that most scientists think global warming is happening, fewer understand just how strong the level of consensus among scientists is. Only one in five Americans (20%) understand that nearly all climate scientists (more than 90%) think that human-caused global warming is happening.4 A similar percentage of Americans (22%) say they “don’t know” what percentage of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening.
Public misunderstanding of the scientific consensus – which has been found in each of our surveys since 2008 – has significant consequences. Other research has identified public understanding of the scientific consensus as an important “gateway belief” that influences other important beliefs (i.e., that global warming is happening, human-caused, and worrisome) and support for action.5
2. Perceived Risks of Global Warming
2.1. Many Americans say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.
Many Americans (44%) agree with the statement “I have personally experienced the effects of global warming,” although a majority of Americans (55%) disagree.
2.2. About half of Americans think people in the U.S. are being harmed “right now” by global warming.
About half of Americans (48%) think people in the U.S. are being harmed by global warming “right now.” This percentage has trended generally upward since this survey began in 2008.
2.3. Many Americans think global warming will harm them, but more think others will be harmed.
A majority of Americans understand that global warming will cause harm. Half or more Americans think global warming will cause either “a great deal” or “a moderate amount” of harm to future generations of people (71%), plant and animal species (70%), the world’s poor (69%), people in developing countries (68%), people in the United States (64%), people in their community (55%), or their family (52%). Many Americans also think they themselves (47%) will be harmed.
2.4. About one in ten Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.
Research indicates that an increasing number of people in the United States may be considering moving away from areas particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. We find that 11% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming, while 83% have not, and 6% are not sure.
3. Worry About Global Warming
3.1. A majority of Americans are worried about global warming.
About two-thirds of Americans (66%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming. This includes 30% of Americans who say they are “very worried” about global warming, a percentage that has trended generally upward since the survey began in 2008.
4. Personal and Social Engagement with Global Warming
4.1. A majority of Americans have thought about global warming “a lot” or “some.”
More than half of Americans (54%) say they have thought about global warming before today either “a lot” (24%) or “some” (30%). Fewer say they have thought about global warming either “a little” (27%) or “not at all” (19%).
4.2. Most Americans “rarely” or “never” discuss global warming with family and friends.
Most Americans (66%) say they either “rarely” (34%) or “never” (32%) discuss global warming with family and friends (refer to data tables, p. 52), while 34% say they discuss global warming either “occasionally” (29%) or “often” (5%).
4.3. Fewer than half of Americans perceive social norms for taking action on global warming.
Social science research has shown that two types of social norms can have a powerful influence on people’s behavior: injunctive norms (the belief that friends and family expect you to behave in a given way) and descriptive norms (the belief that friends and family are themselves behaving in that way).1About four in ten Americans (41%) perceive an injunctive norm, saying it is either “extremely” (3%), “very” (13%), or “moderately” (25%) important to their family and friends that they take action to reduce global warming. Similarly, 38% perceive a descriptive norm, saying their family and friends make either “a great deal of effort” (2%), “a lot of effort” (6%), or “a moderate amount of effort” (30%) to reduce global warming.
4.4. About half of Americans hear about global warming in the media at least once a month; fewer hear people they know talking about it at least once a month.
About half of Americans (52%) say they hear about global warming in the media once a month or more often, while 38% say they hear about global warming in the media several times a year or less often, including 9% who say they never hear about global warming in the media.
In contrast, only about one in four Americans (23%) say they hear people they know talk about global warming once a month or more often, while 69% say they hear people they know talk about it several times a year or less often, including 29% who say they never hear people they know talk about global warming.
4.5. A majority of Americans say the issue of global warming is personally important.
About two in three Americans (65%) say the issue of global warming is either “extremely” (13%), “very” (22%), or “somewhat” (30%) important to them personally (refer to data tables, p. 57). About one in three (35%) say global warming is either “not too” (18%) or “not at all” (17%) personally important.
4.6. A majority of Americans feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.
A majority of Americans (62%) agree either “strongly” (17%) or “somewhat” (44%) that they feel a personal sense of responsibility to help reduce global warming.
4.7. About three in ten Americans look for information about solutions to global warming.
About three in ten Americans (28%) say they look for information about solutions to global warming several times a year or more often, while about six in ten (61%) say they look for solutions once a year or less often, including 47% who say they never do so.
5. Fatalism
5.1. Few Americans think it is too late to do anything about global warming.
About two-thirds of Americans (66%) either “strongly” (38%) or “somewhat” (29%) disagree with the statement: “it’s already too late to do anything about global warming.” By contrast, relatively few Americans (13%) either “strongly” (2%) or “somewhat” (11%) agree with this statement.
5.2. Most Americans disagree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming.”
A majority of Americans (57%) either “strongly” (19%) or “somewhat” (38%) disagree with the statement “the actions of a single individual won’t make any difference in global warming” (refer to data tables, p. 61). In contrast, about four in ten Americans (42%) either “strongly” (16%) or “somewhat” (26%) agree that individual actions won’t make a difference.
5.3. Most Americans do not think new technologies can solve global warming without individual action.
Most Americans (56%) either “strongly” (20%) or “somewhat” (36%) disagree with the statement “new technologies can solve global warming without individuals having to make big changes in their lives” (refer to data tables, p. 62), while 44% of Americans either “strongly” (6%) or “somewhat” (37%) agree with this statement.
6. Impacts of Global Warming
6.1. A majority of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States.
About two-thirds of Americans (65%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including a majority (58%) who think global warming is affecting U.S. weather either “a lot” (33%) or “some” (25%).
As noted above, 33% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather “a lot.” This is about the same level as in most of our surveys since October 2017.
6.2. Most Americans think global warming is affecting environmental problems in the United States.
Most Americans think global warming is affecting many environmental problems in the United States at least “a little.” This includes three in four who think global warming is affecting extreme heat (75%), and about seven in ten who think global warming is affecting rising sea levels (72%), wildfires (71%), and droughts (71%). Six in ten or more think global warming is affecting flooding (69%), water shortages (69%), hurricanes (68%), air pollution (67%), tornados (66%), reduced snow pack (62%), agricultural pests and diseases (61%), and water pollution (60%), and 58% think global warming is affecting electricity power outages.
6.3. A majority of Americans think extreme weather poses a risk to their community.
A majority of Americans (56%) think extreme weather poses either a “high” (18%) or “moderate” (38%) risk to their community over the next 10 years. Fewer think extreme weather poses either a “low” risk (32%) or “no” risk (6%).
6.4. A majority of Americans are worried about harm from environmental problems in their local area.
Section 6.2 of this report outlined the degree to which Americans think global warming is already affecting numerous environmental problems. This section details how worried Americans are that each of those environmental problems will harm their local area in the future. Majorities of Americans are at least “a little worried” their local area might be harmed by extreme heat (72%), water pollution (72%), air pollution (72%), electricity power outages (71%), droughts (68%), agricultural pests and diseases (61%), water shortages (60%), flooding (57%), tornados (56%), and wildfires (51%). Many Americans are also worried their local area might be harmed by rising sea levels (42%), hurricanes (41%), and reduced snow pack (36%).
Appendix I: Data Tables
Data Tables can be found beginning on p. 31 of the PDF version of the report:
Appendix II: Survey Method
The data in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,011 American adults, aged 18 and older. The survey was conducted April 18 – May 1, 2023. All questionnaires were self-administered by respondents in a web-based environment. The median completion time for the survey was 22 minutes.
The sample was drawn from the Ipsos KnowledgePanel®, an online panel of members drawn using probability sampling methods. Prospective members are recruited using a combination of random digit dial and address-based sampling techniques that cover virtually all (non-institutional) resident phone numbers and addresses in the United States. Those contacted who would choose to join the panel but do not have access to the Internet are loaned computers and provided Internet access so they may participate.
The sample therefore includes a representative cross-section of American adults – irrespective of whether they have Internet access, use only a cell phone, etc. Key demographic variables were weighted, post survey, to match US Census Bureau norms.
From November 2008 to December 2018, no KnowledgePanel® member participated in more than one Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) survey. Beginning with the April 2019 survey, panel members who have participated in CCAM surveys in the past, excluding the most recent two surveys, may be randomly selected for participation. In the current survey, 267 respondents participated in a previous CCAM survey.
The survey instrument was designed by Anthony Leiserowitz, Seth Rosenthal, Jennifer Carman, Marija Verner, Matthew Ballew, Sanguk Lee, Matthew Goldberg, and Jennifer Marlon of Yale University, and Edward Maibach, John Kotcher, Teresa Myers, and Nicholas Badullovich of George Mason University. The figures and tables were designed by Marija Verner, Sanguk Lee, Jennifer Marlon, and Liz Neyens of Yale University.
Sample details and margins of error
All samples are subject to some degree of sampling error – that is, statistical results obtained from a sample can be expected to differ somewhat from results that would be obtained if every member of the target population were interviewed. Average margins of error for each wave of CCAM, at the 95% confidence level, are plus or minus 3 percentage points except where noted.
- April 2023: Fielded April 18 – May 1 (n = 1,011)
- December 2022: Fielded December 2 – 12 (n = 1,085)
- April 2022: Fielded April 13 – May 2 (n = 1,018)
- September 2021: Fielded September 10 – 20 (n = 1,006)
- March 2021: Fielded March 18 – 29 (n = 1,037)
- December 2020: Fielded December 3 – 17 (n = 1,036)
- Apri 2020: Fielded April 8 – 17 (n = 1,029)
- November 2019: Fielded November 8 – 20 (n = 1,303)
- April 2019: Fielded March 29 – April 8 (n = 1,291)
- December 2018: Fielded November 28 – December 11 (n = 1,114)
- March 2018: Fielded March 7 – 24 (n = 1,278)
- October 2017: Fielded October 20 – November 1 (n = 1,304)
- May 2017: Fielded May 18 – June 6 (n = 1,266)
- November 2016: Fielded November 18 – December 1 (n = 1,226)
- March 2016: Fielded March 18 – 31 (n = 1,204)
- October 2015: Fielded September 30 – October 19 (n = 1,330)
- March 2015: Fielded February 27 – March 10 (n = 1,263)
- October 2014: Fielded October 17 – 28 (n = 1,275)
- April 2014: Fielded April 15 – 22 (n = 1,013)
- November 2013: Fielded November 23 – December 9 (n = 830)
- April 2013: Fielded April 10 – 15 (n = 1,045)
- September 2012: Fielded August 31 – September 12 (n = 1,061)
- March 2012: Fielded March 12 – 30 (n = 1,008)
- November 2011: Fielded October 20 – November 16 (n = 1,000)
- May 2011: Fielded April 23 – May 12 (n = 1,010)
- June 2010: Fielded May 14 – June 1 (n = 1,024)
- January 2010: Fielded December 24, 2009 – January 3, 2010 (n = 1,001).
- November 2008: Fielded October 7 – November 12 (n = 2,164).
- Data were collected over two periods: from October 7 – 20 and from October 24 – November 12. Margin of error plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Rounding error and tabulation
In data tables, bases specified are unweighted, while percentages are weighted to match national population parameters.
For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given figure or table may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., “strongly agree” + “somewhat agree”) are rounded after sums are calculated. For example, in some cases, the sum of 25% + 25% might be reported as 51% (e.g., 25.3% + 25.3% = 50.6%, which, after rounding, would be reported as 25% + 25% = 51%).
Appendix III: Sample Demographics
Citation
Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Rosenthal, S., Kotcher, J., Lee, S., Verner, M., Ballew, M., Carman, J., Myers, T., Goldberg, M., Badullovich, N., & Marlon, J. (2023). Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2023. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.
Funding Source
The research was funded by the 11th Hour Project, the Energy Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and the Grantham Foundation.