Politics & Global Warming, March 2021

Report Summary

Drawing on a nationally representative survey (n = 1,037; including 922 registered voters), this report describes how Democratic, Independent, and Republican registered voters view climate and energy policies.

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication , Interview dates: March 18 – 29, 2021. Average margin of error +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Executive Summary

Drawing on a nationally representative survey (n = 1,037; including 922 registered voters), this report describes how registered voters view a variety of climate and energy policies. The survey was fielded from March 18 – 29, 2021. This report focuses on U.S. domestic policy, building on our report released in April 2021 that explored the politics of public support for international climate action. This executive summary presents the results from all registered voters, while the report goes further by breaking the results down by political party and ideology.

Global Warming and Clean Energy as Government Priorities

• 52% of registered voters say global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress.
• 60% of registered voters say developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress.

Global Warming and Energy Policies

Majorities of registered voters support a range of policies to reduce carbon pollution and promote clean energy. These include:

• 78% support providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels.
• 76% support funding more research into renewable energy sources.
• 72% support regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant.
• 67% support transitioning the U.S. economy (including electric utilities, transportation, buildings, and industry) from fossil fuels to 100% clean energy by 2050.
• 65% support setting strict carbon dioxide emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants.
• 63% support requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a tax on the carbon pollution they produce, and using that revenue to reduce other taxes (such as the federal income tax) by an equal amount (i.e., a revenue-neutral carbon tax).
• 61% support requiring electric utilities to produce 100% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by the year 2035.

Registered voters across the political spectrum also support a range of conservation and restoration policies, including:

• 82% support re-establishing the Civilian Conservation Corps, which would employ workers to protect natural ecosystems, plant trees in rural and urban areas, and restore the soil on farmlands.
• 81% support creating a jobs program that would hire unemployed coal workers to safely close down old coal mines and restore the natural landscape.
• 80% support creating a jobs program that would hire unemployed oil and gas workers to safely close down thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells, which are a source of water and methane pollution.
• 74% support setting aside 30% of America’s lands and waters for conservation by 2030.
• 65% support increasing federal funding to low-income communities and communities of color who are disproportionally harmed by air and water pollution.

Declaring Climate Change a National Emergency

• 56% of registered voters support a U.S. president declaring global warming a national emergency if Congress does not act.

Energy Production as an Economic Issue

• 49% of registered voters say that policies to promote clean energy will improve economic growth and create jobs, while 35% say these policies will reduce growth and cost jobs.
• 58% of registered voters say that increasing production of clean energy in the U.S. will produce more new jobs than will increasing fossil fuel production.

Support for Infrastructure Investments

• 67% of registered voters support a major government investment in the nation’s infrastructure.

Acting on Global Warming

• 47% of registered voters say actions taken by governments and individuals are about equally important for responding to global warming, while 21% say actions taken by governments are most important and seven percent say actions taken by individuals are most important.
• 72% of registered voters say corporations and industry should do more to address global warming.
• Half or more of registered voters say citizens (65%), the U.S. Congress (63%), the Republican Party (61%), their local government officials (59%), their governor (56%), the Democratic Party (54%), they themselves (54%), the media (52%), and President Biden (50%) should do more to address global warming.

Collective Efficacy

• About half of registered voters are at least “moderately confident” that people like them, working together, can affect what their local government (53%), local businesses (51%), their state government (49%), and the federal government (47%) do about global warming.

Local and State Government Action on Global Warming

• 49% of registered voters say their local government should prioritize both climate mitigation and adaptation about equally, while one in four (23%) say the main priority should be mitigation, and nine percent say it should be adaptation.
• Relatively few registered voters (27%) are moderately or more confident that their state and local government can help protect their local community from the impacts of global warming.
• About half or more of registered voters say their state and local governments should place a high priority on protecting public water supplies (57%), people’s health (53%), and agriculture (49%) from the effects of global warming over the next 10 years.
• Majorities of registered voters support climate-friendly policies for their local community, including increasing the availability of public transportation in their county (75%), providing funding to help homeowners make energy-efficient improvements to their homes (74%), constructing bike paths and installing bike lanes on city streets (74%), and paying 5% more on their monthly utility bill to get electricity from renewable energy sources (52%).

Reading Notes

• This report includes only registered voters.
• References to Republicans and Democrats throughout include respondents who initially identify as either a Republican or Democrat, as well as those who do not initially identify as a Republican or Democrat but who say they “are closer to” one of those parties (i.e., “leaners”) in a follow-up question. The category “Independents” does not include any of these “leaners.”
• For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., “strongly support” + “somewhat support”) are rounded after sums are calculated (e.g., 25.3% + 25.3% = 50.6%, which, after rounding, would be reported as 25% + 25% = 51%).
• Weighted percentages among registered voters of each of the groups discussed in this report:
  • Democrats (total) including leaners: 46%
    • Liberal Democrats: 24%
    • Moderate/Conservative Democrats: 21%
      • (Moderate Democrats: 19%; Conservative Democrats: 2%)
  • Independents excluding leaners: 10%
  • Republicans (total) including leaners: 40%
    • Liberal/Moderate Republicans: 13%
      • (Liberal Republicans: 1%; Moderate Republicans: 12%)
    • Conservative Republicans: 26%
  • No party/Not interested in politics/No response: 4% (included in results reported for “All Registered Voters” only)
• In the data tables, “0” denotes that the cell value is between 0.00 and 0.49.
• In all tables, bases are unweighted and percentages are weighted.
• The full text of all survey items can be found in the data tables.

1. Global Warming and Clean Energy as Government Priorities

1.1. Most Democrats think global warming should be a “high” or “very high” priority for the president and Congress.

Large majorities of liberal Democrats (88%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (78%) think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress, as do 47% of Independents (see Data Tables). Relatively few liberal/moderate Republicans (35%) or conservative Republicans (12%) think so.

Over the past five years (since March 2016), the percentage of liberal Democrats who think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress has increased by seven percentage points and the percentage of moderate/conservative Democrats who think so has increased by 14 percentage points.

1.2. Most registered voters think developing sources of clean energy should be a “high” or “very high” priority for the president and Congress.

About nine in ten liberal Democrats (90%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (87%), and about half of Independents (51%, see Data Tables) think developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress. About four in ten liberal/moderate Republicans (44%) and one in four conservative Republicans (24%) think so.

Over the past year, there has been a sharp decline in the percentages of both liberal/moderate Republicans and conservative Republicans who think developing sources of clean energy should be a priority for the president and Congress. The current numbers are all-time lows since we first asked the question in 2010.

2. Support for Policies to Reduce the Pollution that Causes Global Warming

2.1. Most registered voters, including many Republicans, support climate-friendly energy policies.

Registered voters across the political spectrum support many energy policies designed to reduce carbon pollution and fossil fuel dependence and promote clean energy, including:

• Providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels: 78% of registered voters, 96% of liberal Democrats, 89% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 78% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 60% of conservative Republicans.
• Funding more research into renewable energy sources: 76% of registered voters, 98% of liberal Democrats, 95% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 72% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 49% of conservative Republicans.
• Regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant: 72% of registered voters, 97% of liberal Democrats, 93% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 64% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 42% of conservative Republicans.
• Transitioning the U.S. economy (including electric utilities, transportation, buildings, and industry) from fossil fuels to 100% clean energy by 2050: 67% of registered voters, 98% of liberal Democrats, 91% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 56% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 32% of conservative Republicans.
• Setting strict carbon dioxide emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants: 65% of registered voters, 92% of liberal Democrats, 89% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 58% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 30% of conservative Republicans.
• Requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a tax on the carbon pollution they produce, and use that revenue to reduce other taxes (such as the federal income tax) by an equal amount (i.e., a revenue-neutral carbon tax): 63% of registered voters, 94% of liberal Democrats, 84% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 48% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 31% of conservative Republicans.
• Requiring electric utilities to produce 100% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by the year 2035: 61% of registered voters, 96% of liberal Democrats, 81% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 47% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 24% of conservative Republicans.

2.2. Most registered voters support conservation and restoration policies.

Registered voters across the political spectrum support a range of conservation and restoration policies, including:

• Re-establishing the Civilian Conservation Corps, which would employ workers to protect natural ecosystems, plant trees in rural and urban areas, and restore the soil on farmlands: 82% of registered voters, 98% of liberal Democrats, 94% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 81% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 64% of conservative Republicans.
• Creating a jobs program that would hire unemployed coal workers to safely close down old coal mines and restore the natural landscape: 81% of registered voters, 97% of liberal Democrats, 93% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 79% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 58% of conservative Republicans.
• Creating a jobs program that would hire unemployed oil and gas workers to safely close down thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells, which are a source of water and methane pollution: 80% of registered voters, 96% of liberal Democrats, 94% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 78% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 59% of conservative Republicans.
• Setting aside 30% of American’s lands and waters for conservation by 2030: 74% of registered voters, 96% of liberal Democrats, 91% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 68% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 48% of conservative Republicans.
• Increasing federal funding to low-income communities and communities of color who are disproportionally harmed by air and water pollution: 65% of registered voters, 96% of liberal Democrats, 87% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 56% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 29% of conservative Republicans.

2.3. A majority of registered voters would support a president declaring a national emergency to act on global warming.

More than half of registered voters (56%) would “strongly” or “somewhat” would support a U.S. president declaring global warming a national emergency to act on it if Congress does not. This action has the support of large majorities of both liberal Democrats (91%, with 50% saying they “strongly support” it; see Data Tables) and moderate/conservative Democrats (87%). By contrast, only 37% of liberal/moderate Republicans and 14% of conservative Republicans would support it (and 86% of conservative Republicans oppose it, including 68% who “strongly oppose” it, see Data Tables).

3. Energy Production as an Economic Issue

3.1. About half of registered voters think policies that promote clean energy will improve economic growth and create jobs.

About half of registered voters (49%) think policies that promote clean energy will improve economic growth and create jobs, while about one in three (35%) think it will have the opposite effect, reducing growth and costing jobs, and 16% think it will have no impact either way.¹

Opinion is sharply divided along political lines – large majorities of liberal Democrats (87%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (70%) think clean energy policies will have a positive impact on the economy and jobs, while 46% of liberal/moderate Republicans and about three in four conservative Republicans (73%) think they will have a negative impact.

3.2. Most registered voters think the clean energy industry will create more good jobs than the fossil fuel industry.

About six in ten registered voters (58%) think increasing production of clean energy in the U.S. will produce more new jobs than will increasing fossil fuel production, while four in ten (40%) think the opposite (that increasing fossil fuel production will create more jobs than will increasing clean energy production).²

Large majorities of liberal Democrats (92%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (87%) think clean energy production will produce more good jobs, while about six in ten liberal/moderate Republicans (59%) and eight in ten conservative Republicans (80%) think increasing fossil fuel production will create more good U.S. jobs.

¹The full text of the survey item and response categories are: Please indicate which one of these statements comes closest to your own views – even if it is not exactly right: Overall, government policies intended to transition away from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) and toward clean energy (solar, wind) will… (a) Improve economic growth and provide new jobs; (b) Have no impact on economic growth or jobs; (c) Reduce economic growth and cost jobs.

²The full text of the survey item and response categories are: Generally speaking, which do you think will produce more good jobs in the U.S.? (a) Increasing production of clean energy such as wind and solar; (b) Increasing production of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas.

4. Support for Infrastructure Investments

4.1. Across political lines, registered voters support a major investment in the nation’s infrastructure.

Two in three registered voters (67%) support a major government investment in the nation’s infrastructure, including large majorities of liberal Democrats (88%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (81%), six in ten liberal/moderate Republicans (60%), and about half of conservative Republicans (48%).

Only seven percent of registered voters oppose a major investment in infrastructure, while one in four (25%) are neutral.

5. Who is Responsible for Action on Global Warming?

5.1. Registered voters say government and individual actions are both important for responding to global warming.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters say actions taken by governments and individuals are about equally important for responding to global warming, while 21% say actions taken by governments are most important, seven percent say actions taken by individuals are most important, six percent say neither type of action is important because nothing can be done to response to global warming, and seven percent say neither type of action is important because global warming isn’t happening.¹

Each political group is most likely to say actions taken by both governments and individuals are about equally important for responding to global warming, with a large number of liberal Democrats (41%) also saying that government actions, specifically, are most important.

5.2. Seven in ten registered voters want corporations and industry to do more to address global warming. Most also want more action from citizens and government.

Across party lines, registered voters say corporations and industry should do “much more” or “more” to address global warming (72% of all registered voters; including 96% of liberal Democrats, 92% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 65% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 39% of conservative Republicans). Majorities of liberal Democrats (95%), moderate/conservative Democrats (84%), and liberal/moderate Republicans (55%) also say citizens themselves should do more.

Half or more registered voters say the U.S. Congress (63%), the Republican Party (61%), their local government officials (59%), their governor (56%), the Democratic Party (54%), they themselves (54%), the media (52%), and President Biden (50%) should do more.

Four in ten liberal/moderate Republicans (40%) say their party (the Republican Party) should do more to address global warming, while only one in five conservative Republicans (20%) say so. Large majorities of both liberal Democrats (88%) and moderate/conservative Democrats (73%) say their party (the Democratic Party) should do more.

¹The full text of the survey item and response categories are: Individuals and governments can both take actions to respond to global warming. Which do you think is more important for responding to global warming? (a) Actions taken by individuals; (b) Actions taken by governments; (c) Actions taken by individuals and governments are about equally important; (d) Neither type of action is important because nothing can be done to respond to global warming; (e) Neither type of action is important because global warming isn’t happening; (f) Don’t know.

6. Collective Efficacy

6.1. Americans are more confident they can influence local decision-makers than national decision-makers

Perceived collective efficacy regarding global warming – the belief that like-minded citizens can work together to influence what government and business leaders do about global warming – is an important motivator for individuals to take collective action.¹ About half of Americans are at least “moderately confident” that people like them, working together, can affect what their local government (53%), local businesses (51%), and their state government (49%) does about global warming. Four in ten or more are confident that people like them can affect what the federal government (47%) and corporations (45%) do about global warming.

Liberal Democrats have the highest perceptions of collective efficacy, with two in three or more expressing confidence that people like them can affect what various institutions do about global warming. Conservative Republicans have the lowest perceptions of collective efficacy regarding global warming, although that may be because they feel the questions are less personally relevant to them.

¹Bandura, A. (2000). Exercise of human agency through collective efficacy. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 9, 75-78. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8721.00064

7. Local and State Government Action on Global Warming

7.1. About half of registered voters say it is equally important for local governments to respond to global warming by reducing its causes and preparing for its impacts.

About half of registered voters (49%) say their local government should prioritize both climate change mitigation (reducing the causes of global warming) and adaptation (preparing for the impacts of global warming) about equally, with an additional one in four (23%) saying the main priority should be mitigation, and nine percent saying it should be adaptation. Nineteen percent of registered voters (including about 42% of conservative Republicans) say their local government should not prioritize either of these approaches.

7.2. Few registered voters are confident their local government can help protect their community from the impacts of global warming.

Only about one in four registered voters are either “extremely” (2%), “very” (4%), or “moderately” confident (22%) their state and local government can help protect their local community from the impacts of global warming. More than half of registered voters are either “only a little” confident (33%) or “not at all” confident (23%), and 16% don’t know.

Liberal Democrats (36%) are the most likely to say they are at least moderately confident while conservative Republicans (17%) are the least likely to do so.

7.3. Majorities of registered voters prioritize protecting public water supplies and agriculture and people’s health from the effects of global warming.

 Majorities of registered voters think their state and local governments should place a “high priority” on protecting public water supplies (57%) and people’s health (53%) from the effects of global warming over the next ten years.

Four in ten or more think protecting agriculture (49%), the electricity system (44%), and forests (43%) should be a high priority. Fewer place a high priority on protecting public coastlines/wetlands (39%), sewer systems (36%), transportation/roads/bridges (34%), or state and local parks (27%) from the effects of global warming.

Liberal Democrats are generally the most likely to place a high priority on protecting these forms of infrastructure from the effects of global warming, while conservative Republicans are the least likely.

7.4. Registered voters support a number of climate-friendly policies for their local community.

Large majorities of registered voters support climate-friendly policies for their local community including increasing the availability of public transportation in their county (75%), providing funding to help homeowners make energy-efficient improvements to their homes (74%), and constructing bike paths and installing bike lanes (74%). Large majorities of liberal Democrats, moderate/conservative Democrats, and liberal/moderate Republicans support these policies as do half or more conservative Republicans.

About half of registered voters (52%) support paying 5% more on monthly utility bills to get electricity from renewable energy sources. Fewer (38%) support a 10-cent fee per gallon on gasoline to fund local programs to improve public transportation.

Appendix I: Data Tables

Data Tables can be found beginning on p. 24 of the PDF version of the full report:

politics-global-warming-march-2021b

Appendix II: Survey Method

The data in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,037 American adults, aged 18 and older. Results are reported for the subset of 922 registered voters who participated in the survey. The survey was conducted March 18 – 29, 2021. All questionnaires were self-administered by respondents in a web-based environment. The survey took, on average, about 25 minutes to complete.

The sample was drawn from the Ipsos (formerly GfK) KnowledgePanel^®, an online panel of members drawn using probability sampling methods. Prospective members are recruited using a combination of random digit dial and address-based sampling techniques that cover virtually all (non-institutional) resident phone numbers and addresses in the United States. Those contacted who would choose to join the panel but do not have access to the Internet are loaned computers and given Internet access so they may participate.

The sample therefore includes a representative cross-section of American adults – irrespective of whether they have Internet access, use only a cell phone, etc. Key demographic variables were weighted, post survey, to match US Census Bureau norms.

From November 2008 to December 2018, no KnowledgePanel^® member participated in more than one Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) survey. Beginning with the April 2019 survey, panel members who have participated in CCAM surveys in the past, excluding the most recent two surveys, may be randomly selected for participation. In the current survey, 316 respondents, 272 of whom are registered voters included in this report, participated in a previous CCAM survey.

The survey instrument was designed by Anthony Leiserowitz, Seth Rosenthal, Jennifer Carman, Matthew Goldberg, Karine Lacroix, and Jennifer Marlon of Yale University, and Edward Maibach and John Kotcher of George Mason University.

Margins of error

All samples are subject to some degree of sampling error – that is, statistical results obtained from a sample can be expected to differ somewhat from results that would be obtained if every member of the target population was interviewed. Average margins of error, at the 95% confidence level, are as follows:

• Total registered voters (n = 922): Plus or minus 3 percentage points.
  • Democrats (total; n = 403): Plus or minus 5 points.
    • Liberal Democrats (n = 213): Plus or minus 7 points.
    • Moderate/conservative Democrats (n = 188): Plus or minus 7 points.
  • Independents (n = 83): Plus or minus 11 points.
  • Republicans (total; n = 397): Plus or minus 5 points.
    • Liberal/moderate Republicans (n = 129): Plus or minus 9 points.
    • Conservative Republicans (n = 266): Plus or minus 6 points.

Rounding error and tabulation

In data tables, bases specified are unweighted, but percentages are weighted to match national population parameters.

For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., “strongly support” + “somewhat support”) are rounded after sums are calculated (e.g., 25.3% + 25.3% = 50.6%, which, after rounding, would be reported as 25% + 25% = 51%).

Appendix III: Demographics

Sample demographics can be found on pp. 50-51 of the PDF version of the full report:

politics-global-warming-march-2021b