This report summarizes the beliefs and attitudes findings from our April 2014 survey. Findings include that most American adults – by more than a three-to-one margin – think global warming is happening than think it is not.
Executive Summary
- A majority of Americans think global warming is happening and they are increasingly certain.
The reality of climate change – worldwide and in the United States – is a well-established scientific fact. The first finding in the recently released 2014 National Climate Assessment (written and reviewed by hundreds of climate experts over the past 4 years), for example, concluded: “Global climate is changing and this is apparent across the United States in a wide range of observations.”
(Bars show the difference between each decade’s average temperature and the overall average for 1901 to 2000. The far right bar includes data for 2001-2012. Source: U.S. National Climate Assessment).
Our most recent survey, conducted in April, 2014, finds that by more than a three-to-one margin, more Americans think global warming is happening than think it is not. Currently, 64% of Americans think global is happening, a number that has been relatively stable over the past three years.
Our survey also shows that Americans’ certainty that the Earth is warming has increased over the past three years. Currently, of those who think global warming is happening, nearly two in three (62%) say they are either extremely (30%) or very (32%) sure that it is. Three years ago, in May 2011, fewer (54%) were as sure. And over the same three-year period, those who think global warming is not happening have become substantially less sure of their position (from 52% in May 2011, to 41% today).
These findings are notable in light of the fact that the survey was conducted shortly after much of the country experienced a particularly cold winter, including the “polar vortex”, suggesting that Americans’ growing certainty that global warming is happening was relatively unaffected by their recent experience of extreme cold weather.
2. About half of Americans think that if global warming is happening, it is caused mostly by human activities. One in three thinks it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment.
The 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment states: “the global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels. Many independent lines of evidence confirm that human activities are affecting climate in unprecedented ways.”
Currently, half of Americans (52%) think that global warming, if it is happening, is mostly human caused. By contrast, one in three (32%) say they think it is due mostly to natural changes in the environment. Public understanding and acceptance of the human contribution to global warming has fluctuated over the past several years, but is currently 5 percentage points higher than in May 2011, while belief that global warming is naturally caused is 3 points lower.
- Based on the evidence, 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused global
warming is happening, but most Americans either do not know, or do not accept, this fact.
In the latest study investigating the degree of scientific consensus on climate change, Cook and colleagues (2013) examined nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed papers in the climate science literature and found that of those papers that stated a position on the reality of human-caused global warming, 97% said it is happening and at least partly human caused.
Public understanding of climate change, however, is starkly different than the expert consensus: only 44% of Americans think global warming is both happening and human caused. Moreover, only one in ten Americans (12%) know that 90% or more scientists have concluded humancaused global warming is happening. As many Americans – (14%) – think fewer than half of climate scientists
have reached this conclusion. Another three in ten Americans (29%) say they “don’t know” (28%) or didn’t answer the question (1%).
This public misunderstanding of the degree of scientific consensus has significant consequences. Other research has identified public understanding of the scientific consensus as a critical “gateway belief” that influences other important beliefs (i.e., global warming is happening, human caused, a serious problem, and solvable) and support for action.
For further information, see: Ding et al. (2011); Lewandowsky et al. (2013); and McCright et al. (2013).
- Few Americans are “very worried” about global warming and many see it as a relatively distant
threat.
The evidence of global warming is steadily mounting in the United States. According to the 2014 U.S.
National Climate Assessment:
“Residents of some coastal cities see their streets flood more regularly during storms and
high tides. Inland cities near large rivers also experience more flooding, especially in the
Midwest and Northeast. Insurance rates are rising in some vulnerable locations, and
insurance is no longer available in others. Hotter and drier weather and earlier snow melt
mean that wildfires in the West start earlier in the spring, last later into the fall, and burn
more acreage. In Arctic Alaska, the summer sea ice that once protected the coasts has
receded, and autumn storms now cause more erosion, threatening many communities with
relocation.”
Yet, only one in three Americans thinks people in the U.S. are being harmed “right now” by global warming in the United States, a number that has waxed and waned slightly over the past several years.
Moreover, just over half of Americans (55%) say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global
warming, while only 15% say they are “very worried” about it.
Even as the impacts of global warming have increased over time, public worry about it has remained stable, changing little over the past three years and lower today than in November 2008.
Perhaps one reason why relatively few Americans are “very” worried about global warming is that few think they will be personally harmed by it. Of those Americans who are “very” worried, about eight in ten (78%) think it will cause harm to them personally. By contrast, of those who are “somewhat” worried, half (51%) think it will harm them personally. Of those who are “not very” worried, only 18% think global warming will harm them personally, and a mere 3% of those “not at all” worried believe it will harm them personally.
Likewise, while most Americans (67%) believe future generations of people will be harmed “a great deal” or “a moderate amount” by global warming, only a minority believe they personally (38%), their family (43%), or people in their community (45%) will be harmed. Thus many Americans still perceive global warming as a relatively distant threat.
To what extent will global warming harm future generations of people? Asked to predict how it will affect people 50 years from now, about three in ten say that each year thousands or millions of people around the world will die (31%) and/or become injured or ill (32%) due to global warming.
One in five, however, say global warming will not cause any death (21%) or injury (20%), and a plurality of Americans – about four in ten (38% and 39% respectively) – say they “don’t know.”
Regarding the solvability of global warming, the pessimists outnumber the optimists, although the most common view is that it’s too soon to say.
Fewer than one in ten Americans (6%) say that “humans can reduce global warming and will do so
successfully,” while more than four in ten say global warming won’t be reduced because people aren’t willing to change their behavior (25%) or that it simply can’t be reduced even if it is happening (16%).
Finally, more than four in ten (42%) believe humans could reduce global warming, but it is unclear at this point whether we will do what’s necessary.
- Only one in three Americans discusses global warming with family and friends even
occasionally.
There is some indication that this lack of discussion stems from perceived disagreement on the issue. Of those Americans who say “none” of their friends share their views on global warming, most never discuss it with friends (77%), while very few say they discuss it occasionally or more often (7%). By contrast, of those Americans who say “all” of their friends share their views on the subject, half discuss it with them often or occasionally (50%), while only one in four say they never discuss it (25%).
This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Interview dates: April 11 – 21, 2014. Interviews: 1,013 Adults (18+). Total average margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The research was funded by the Energy Foundation, the 11th Hour Project, the Grantham Foundation, and the V.K. Rasmussen Foundation.
Principal Investigators:
Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD
[email protected]
Geoff Feinberg
[email protected]
Seth Rosenthal, PhD
[email protected]
Yale Project on Climate Change Communication
School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
Yale University
Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD
[email protected]
Connie Roser-Renouf, PhD
[email protected]
Center for Climate Change Communication
Department of Communication
George Mason University
Cite as: Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Feinberg, G., & Rosenthal, S. (2014) Climate change in the American mind: April, 2014. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.