Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2023
1.1. Most Americans think global warming is happening.
Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of nearly 5 to 1.
About three in four Americans (74%) think global warming is happening. By contrast, only 15% of Americans think global warming is not happening. Eleven percent say they don’t know if global warming is happening (refer to data tables, p. 31).
1.2. When Americans who “don’t know” if global warming is happening are asked for their best guess, more say “yes” than “no.”
Survey respondents who say they “don’t know” whether global warming is happening in response to the question in Section 1.1 (refer to data tables, p. 31) are then asked to provide their best guess as to whether or not global warming is happening. Over time, this follow-up question has produced a relatively stable pattern in which more of these Americans “lean” toward “yes” than “no” (refer to data tables, p. 32).
When the “leaners,” as determined by this follow-up question, are added to the totals of those who responded “yes” or “no” to the question in Section 1.1, we find that a total of 82% of Americans think global warming is happening or lean toward that position, while 18% think global warming is not happening or lean toward that position.
1.3. About half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening.
About half of Americans (53%) are either “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. Far fewer (8%) are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is not happening.
1.4. A majority of Americans think global warming is mostly human-caused.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment report, written and reviewed by thousands of climate experts worldwide, states: “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.”
A majority of Americans (61%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, 28% think it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment.
1.5. A majority of Americans understand that most scientists think global warming is happening.
A review by Cook and colleagues found that six independent, peer-reviewed studies examining the scientific consensus about global warming have concluded that between 90% and 100% of climate scientists are convinced human-caused global warming is happening. A more recent study found that as many as 98% of climate scientists are convinced global warming is happening and human-caused.
A majority of Americans (58%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. This percentage has trended generally upward since this survey began in 2008. By contrast, about one in five (22%) think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening. Very few Americans (2%) believe most scientists think global warming is not happening.
1.6. One in five Americans understand that almost all climate scientists (more than 90%) have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening.
Although the majority of Americans now understand that most scientists think global warming is happening, fewer understand just how strong the level of consensus among scientists is. Only one in five Americans (20%) understand that nearly all climate scientists (more than 90%) think that human-caused global warming is happening.4 A similar percentage of Americans (22%) say they “don’t know” what percentage of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening.
Public misunderstanding of the scientific consensus – which has been found in each of our surveys since 2008 – has significant consequences. Other research has identified public understanding of the scientific consensus as an important “gateway belief” that influences other important beliefs (i.e., that global warming is happening, human-caused, and worrisome) and support for action.5
Citation
Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Rosenthal, S., Kotcher, J., Lee, S., Verner, M., Ballew, M., Carman, J., Myers, T., Goldberg, M., Badullovich, N., & Marlon, J. (2023). Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2023. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.
Funding Source
The research was funded by the 11th Hour Project, the Energy Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and the Grantham Foundation.